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Lai Ching-te
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William Lai,
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comment Lai
Ching-te, Taiwan's president
(Lai Ching-te takes up the mantle from his DPP predecessor
Tsai Ing-wen since May 20, 2024.)
◆ EFE (Spain), 2024-8-29: Taiwan says not 'affiliated' with China after Wang- Sullivan meeting in Beijing; Since William Lai (Lai Ching-te) took office in May, China has raised the tone of its threats against the “secessionists” of Taiwan ...... ◆ Asia Nikkei (Japan), 2024-8-27: William Lai marks 100 days in office as China and opposition test mettle; The defining themes of his presidency so far have been efforts to reform the economy, strengthen Taiwan's defenses against China's threats and deal with a confrontational opposition that controls parliament. ◆ Defense News, 2024-8-23: President Lai Ching-te's election campaign promised that defense spending would reach 3% of GDP. Taiwan's defense expenditures in 2025 will represent 2.45% of GDP, almost identical to this year's if lawmakers approve the proposal later this month. ◆ National Review, 2024-8-23: the CCP's prominent Chinese People's Political and Consultative Conference body purportedly passed a resolution urging the Chinese authorities to craft a “Taiwan Province Separatist Forces Blacklist”; The author of that resolution called for the execution of Taiwanese president William Lai ◆ Financial Times, 2024-8-22: Taiwan's top security officials make secret trip to US for talks; Some US officials are also privately nervous about Lai, who is inexperienced in foreign affairs and seen as more unpredictable than Tsai. ◆ Atlantic Council, 2024-8-21: Lai Ching-Te and the Legislative Yuan should work together to increase defense spending and military readiness. This requires ensuring that more new voluntary military recruits and conscripts are familiar with or trained in manning asymmetrical systems, such as the Stinger, Javelin, and Harpoon missiles.◆ AFP, 2024-8-21: Lai Ching-te points to Beijing's joint exercises with Russia in the South China Sea, Western Pacific and Sea of Japan. Lai has repeatedly made overtures for dialogue with Beijing but talks have effectively dried up since the 2016 election of his predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen, who has long said Taiwan is not part of China. ◆ Asia Nikkei (Japan), 2024-8-15: Excessive U.S. pressure on Taiwan defense spending plays into (China) CCP's hands ◆ GIS Report (Geopolitical Intelligence Services), 2024-8-15: Lai Ching-te is struggling to counter the creative use of pressure coming from China. Lai's governance style is seen as more “manly” and unafraid of conflict, while lacking a degree of sophistication. ◆ Council on Foreign Relations, 2024-8-9: Taiwan's President, Lai Ching-te, has unveiled plans to increase defense spending by nearly six percent. Taiwan should do all it can to prepare for the worst and mounts a stiff resistance if deterrence fails. To that end, Taiwan's leaders should embrace a new defense spending target of five percent of GDP and rapidly meet that goal through yearly double-digit percentage increases ◆ Washington Post, Star and Strips, 2024-8-4: the “Zero Day” show's bleak assessment of Taiwanese readiness to fight touches upon a very real problem facing President Lai Ching-te. Matt Pottinger says that Taiwan needs the political will and foresight to dedicate some of its best military officers to recruitment and instruction. “I'm really hoping that Taiwan makes these sacrifices"
Should biological males compete against women? Taiwan's Olympic Controversies - Lin won a Gold medal in female boxingnThe Diplomat, 2024-8-6: a global furor over a boxer's gender. n Fox News, 2024-8-4: Debate over the biological sex of a boxer who won women's match at the Olympic Games is sweeping the globe. n Fox News, 2024-8-11: The IBA has said that Lin had an unfair advantage against female opponents. |
|
West |
Taiwan |
♦ Associated
Press News, 2024-8-11:
The two boxers' detractors
included former U.S. President Donald Trump, “Harry Potter” author J.K. Rowling
and Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni.
Their presence in Paris became a weapon in a largely Western culture clash over
eligibility for women's sports. ♦ BBC, 2024-8-12: high profile figures like ex-US President Donald Trump and English author JK Rowling took to social media to decry the decision to let them compete in the women's categories. ♦ Reuters, 2024-8-7: Tesla founder Elon Musk voicing their opposition to the two boxers competing at the Games. ♦ Fox News , 2024-8-4: ...a positive test for "XY chromosomes. The IBA: said Lin and Khelif have competitive advantages. ♦ BBC,
2024-8-9: Dr Emma Hilton, a developmental biologist who studies
genetic disorders.
argues Imane Khelif and Lin Yu-ting
shouldn’t be competing until further testing is done.Some are calling for mandatory sex testing at the next Olympics -
including Reem Alsalem, the UN's special rapporteur on violence against women
and girls. “Screening DNA is now a piece of cake". |
♦ Reuters,
2024-8-7: Taiwan President Lai Ching-te said
Lin had been "maliciously attacked"
by the IBA.
"Yu-Ting is still under a lot of unfair pressure..."
♦ BBC, 2024-8-12: Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te calls Lin a "daughter of Taiwan," saying she had made Taiwan proud. " she has overcome misinformation and cyberbullying" .
♦
Independent, 2024-8-8: "Let's cheer for Lin Yu-ting together", wrote Tsai Ing-wen,
Taiwan's first female president , adding that Lin was seeking victory for herself and honour for
Taiwan.
|
PS: Taiwan's The China Times (2024-8-13): Olympics Paris forced one of Taiwan's athletes to do gender test. (巴黎奧運公然對台灣某位選手無禮,竟強迫她去作性別檢查) chinatimes.com/opinion/20240813001656-262110?chdtv |
◆
TIME,
2024-8-2: Harry Potter writer J.K.
Rowling, a key opinion leader, is publicly questioning the Taiwanese
athlete's ( Olympian Lin Yu Ting has XY chromosomes ) gender (a
transgender ) and doubling down on opposition to the participation of
athletes like Lin.
Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te's spokesperson
said that Lin “has shown incredible strength, overcoming doubts to
compete fairly on the world stage. Your determination inspires the
nation!” ◆
Bloomberg,
2024-7-30: Taiwan President Lai Ching-te pledged to work with other democracies
around the world to stand up to China, and “continue to push for defense
autonomy” and weapons procurement from overseas, his comments likely to deepen his
rift with Beijing.◆
Reuters, 2024-7-30:
Taiwan president (Lai Ching-te) warns on
China, pushes defence self-reliance ◆
Benzinga, 2024-7-30:
After Trump's Taiwan comments, President Lai Ching Te says 'China's
threat to any individual country is a threat to the world'◆
Independent (UK), 2024-7-30:
Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be worse global crisis than Ukraine war
or Covid, warns president
Lai Ching-te ◆
Politico, 2024-7-25:
Trump spooks Taiwan / The political class of Taiwan is
increasingly uneasy that a Donald Trump victory in Nov. may
make Taiwan a bargaining chip in U.S. diplomacy with
Beijing.
Trump also
suggested that trying to defend the island would
be futile ◆
Associated Press, 2024-7-24:
President Lai Ching-te stressed the need for the island to continue
exercises simulating an attack by enemies amid 'changing geopolitics'.◆
Bloomberg, 2024-7-22:
Taiwan's President risks
angering China with
'National Identity'
call.
Lai Ching-te urges
DPP to protect Taiwan sovereignty.
KMT lawmaker
said
it smacked of “ideology and nationalism” and was a
sign that Lai was moving toward despotism
◆
US News, 2024-7-21: Taiwan must protect its sovereignty
and know its own culture and history,
President Lai Ching-te said,
rejecting what he said was the previous
mistaken belief the island could serve
as a base to "retake" China.
◆
New York Times, 2024-7-16: China is putting
more military and political pressure on Taiwan and its new president
(Lai Ching-te), whose rhetoric has been sharper than his
predecessor's... Mr. Lai with hard choices about how and when to push
back or exercise restraint
◆
Bloomberg, TIME, 2024-7-11:
China sent a record number of warplanes across a
U.S.-drawn boundary in the Taiwan Strait—a move that comes as the new
president (Lai Ching-te) of the archipelago mulls a trip that may
include a stop in America ◆
Financial Times, 2024-7-10:
President Lai Ching-te has made improving civil defences a
priority since he took office. However experts warn that Taiwan
remains woefully underprepared for war.
◆
Reuters, 2024-7-9:
Taiwan president says ahead of annual war games
that
"In history, there are many cases where the few
win out over the many, and there are countless ways to win over
old-fashioned enemies with
new thinking."
◆
National
Interest, 2024-7-5:
Taiwan seeks to escape its history / Lai Ching-te
said Taiwan has been an international entity ... since 1624. DPP
administrations have issued textbooks that
teach Taiwan's history separately from Chinese history. But
The Struggle for Taiwan : Taiwan was, in fact, part of the
Chinese empire from 1683 to 1895, and part of the Japanese empire after
the First Sino-Japanese War (1894–5). US President Franklin
Roosevelt at the wartime Cairo
Conference (1943) agreed that Taiwan would be “restored to the Republic of
China” after the defeat of Japan. However, Lai's clear preference
for Taiwan's permanent separation from China echoes almost verbatim an emerging U.S. argument that Taiwan's geostrategic importance
dictates that Washington should never allow China to gain
control over it.
nationalinterest.org/feature/taiwan-seeks-escape-its-history-211750
China seized Taiwan boat with crew for fishing illegally - a move could add to tensions between Beijing and President Lai Ching-te of Taiwan. |
|
◆ New York Times, 2024-7-3 | China Seizes Taiwanese Fishing Boat in Latest Uptick in Tensions; Bonnie Glaser: China wants to demonstrate to Taiwan that it does not have control over air space and sea space...and sends a signal to Lai Ching-te that he is very close to their red lines and he had better not cross them. |
◆ Bloomberg, 2024-7-3 | China sees Lai Ching-te as pushing for independence for the US-backed island...Officials in Taipei have also expressed concern that China will detain more individuals from the island to pile pressure on Lai. |
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◆
Washington Examiner, 2024-7-2:
Xi
Jinping's regime is setting the legal and diplomatic table for a crackdown
on Taiwan while
blaming the United
States for the growing possibility of war over the island democracy...
“The Chinese government has the right to
expel this regime..."
The ominous rhetoric seems to express in part Xi’s displeasure with Lai Ching-Te
◆
Washington Post, 2024-7-1: China: Taiwan's
leadership, along with its supporters in the United States, is
pursuing
“separation” from China in “incremental” fashion.
◆
Nikkei Asia , 2024-7-2:
China pressures Taiwan's Lai (Ching-te) with
most jet fighters in nearly 2 years ◆
Asia Society, 2024-6-26:
Lai Ching-te's inauguration
speech, however, was clear and much less restrained than that of his
predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen, whose rhetorical
flair in public speeches opted for cautious and strategically dull
wording. In fact, Lai placed greater emphasis on the differences between
Taiwan and the PRC
◆
Wall Street Journal, 2024-6-23:
Lai Ching-te said he aimed to make Taiwan the “Asian center
for the democratic drone supply chain.";
Taiwan has the know-how to build its own
unmanned aircraft, now it is a question of
scale.
◆
CNN, 2024-6-21:
China has made no
secret of its dislike of President Lai
Ching-te. China threatens death penalty for ‘diehard’ Taiwan
separatists
◆
Bloomberg, 2024-6-21:
Activities that can lead to guilty verdicts include promoting Taiwan's
membership in international organizations and conducting official
exchanges and military contacts with other nations, according to a legal
opinion issued by China's top court ; But The opinion didn't name new President Lai Ching-te or his predecessor, Tsai
I. W.
◆
Voice of
America, 2024-6-13:
International Crisis Group
expert:
Beijing's approach, it seems at least for now, is
really to lean on Washington to keep the incoming Lai administration on
a more moderate course
◆
TIME, 2024-6-13:
new president Lai Ching-te : "dignity and equivalence with the PRC"
means 1.
the PRC should recognize that the Republic of China
exists.
2.
each issue should be mutually beneficial and
reciprocal
3.share
a common conviction to enhance the well-being of people on both sides of
the Taiwan Strait, working toward an objective of peace and mutual
prosperity
◆
VOA, 2024-6-13:
The future of Taiwan, at least for the next four
years, largely depends on the actions of the island's new president, Lai
Ching-te.
◆
Neue Zürcher Zeitung (Swiss), 2024-6-6:
Taiwan's
president, Lai Ching-te wanted to lead the island to independence.
◆
CSIS ChinaPower Project, 2024-5-25 / Chinese officials and state media have made six different criticisms of Lai's inauguration speech: |
1.
It distorts Taiwan's relations with China, does not recognize that Taiwan is
part of China, promotes a two-state theory, and labels China as a foreign
country; 2. It seeks external involvement and intervention to support Taiwan independence and to make Taiwan a pawn for the west; 3. It tries to use democracy as a guise to pursue independence and undermine peace and stability; 4. It exaggerates and stokes the military threat from China; 5. It weaponizes Taiwan public opinion against China; 6. It does not accurately reflect mainstream public opinion in Taiwan |
◆ AFP, 2024-5-24: China's military drills encircle Taiwan / China warns that Taiwan's leadership was pushing the self-ruled island into war and warned of further "countermeasures". The United Nations called for all sides to avoid escalation. ◆ CNBC, 2024-5-24: This military drill is a signal to shape international narratives. The real 'punishment' against Taiwan may be yet to come, for it takes time.", expert with the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub said. Lai Ching-te may "become emboldened" to depart further from his predecessor Tsai Ing-wen's relatively cautious positioning and "act on his pro-independence instincts ◆ Reuters, Korea Times, 2024-5-24: Beijing was sending a finely calibrated warning that Chinese forces could attempt a swift blockade if it wanted to bring Lai to heel ◆ Financial Times, 2024-5-22: Lai Ching-te's language on sovereignty has already strayed from the path taken by his more cautious predecessor. ◆ Washington Post, 2024-5-20: Taiwan swears in new president, the ruling party DPP has transformed the island democracy into a bulwark against Chinese aggression and brushed off increasingly ominous threats from Beijing; the perception is that Lai Ching-te's policy could be more provocative compared to Tsai's policy ◆ New York Times, 2024-5-20: Taiwan's president, Lai Ching-te vows to keep the island democracy safe in the face of Chinese pressure and wars raging abroad
Bloomberg : "He wants to lead Taiwan, But can he keep peace?"
pic.: "comment Lai
Ching-te"(Chinese version "評論賴清德")
ranks No.1 on US
Yahoo
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China Launches Military Drills Around Taiwan as 'Punishment', 'Reprisals' |
|
◆ New York Times, 2024-5-22 | China took offense to Mr. Lai's assertion that — they “are not subordinate to each other” — and his emphasis on Taiwan's democratic identity and warnings against threats from China. Beijing accused Mr. Lai of promoting formal independence for Taiwan ── the drill was “based on various stages of an invasion of Taiwan... might feature training to seize one of those islands. |
◆ BBC, 2024-5-23 | the ongoing exercise is aimed at "simulating a full-scale armed invasion of Taiwan"... for the first time also targeted the Taipei-controlled islands of Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu and Dongyin. China aims to show Taipei that its east is now exposed to Chinese attack, and to show the Americans that any effort to resupply or re-enforce Taiwan from the east is vulnerable to Chinese missile strikes and naval attack. |
◆ AFP, 2024-5-23 | China holds war games around Taiwan, vows flowing blood。 CCTV : the drills were partly aimed at rehearsing an economic blockade of the island, "strangle" Taiwan's critical Kaohsiung port to "severely impact" its foreign trade, and cut off "Taiwan's lifeline of energy imports" as well as "block the support lines that some US allies provide to 'Taiwan independence' forces". General S. Sklenka described the exercises as "concerning" but not unexpected. |
◆ CNN, 2024-5-22 | CCTV: creating an omnidirectional approach in pushing toward the island. An expert ( at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) calls China's latest drills “an intimidation tactic, part of a pattern, not a sign of imminent war.” Beijing has a robust coercion kitbag from which it will mix and match, ratchet up and back and up again to signal its range of options to coerce and inflict pain。 |
◆ AFP, 2024-5-22 | China slammed the inauguration speech of new Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te as a " downright 'confession of Taiwan independence'" |
◆ Washington Post, 2024-5-23 | The forces were simulating strikes on “high value ‘enemy’ targets” in military drills. |
◆ Reuters, 2024-5-23 | Taiwanese officials told Reuters those areas were outside its contiguous zone, which is 24 nautical miles from the main island's coast. |
◆ Reuters, 2024-5-20: Lai Ching-te takes office as Taiwan's new president on Monday facing an angry and deeply suspicious China which believes he is a "separatist", and a fractious parliament with an opposition chomping at the bit to challenge him. ◆ Washington Examiner, 2024-5-20: Lai, a deep green, more liberal than Biden member of the DPP,Lai has shown "a willingness to signal a pragmatic approach to outreach to Beijing, effectively a continuation of President Tsai's approach" ◆ Economist (UK), 2024-5-16: Taiwan's incoming president, Lai Ching-te, will face new challenges. If you want the world to help in your struggle against an overbearing neighbour, you must first fight back fiercely yourselves. ◆ AFP (French), 2024-5-16: Taiwan's Lai Ching-te takes the helm as president of the self-ruled island, tasked with navigating the widening rift with an increasingly assertive China. "My defining moment came as China's military adventurism... threatened our shores with live fire exercises and missiles," he wrote in an op-ed for The Wall Street Journal last year. During Lai's time as premier, he was more vocal than Tsai about independence ◆ Brookings, 2024-5-14: Beware forecasts of doom for Taiwan under Lai / William Lai is not a wild-eyed zealot with a one-track-minded focus on Taiwan independence. He will want to win reelection. To do so, he almost certainly will need to tack to the center of Taiwan's political spectrum ... Lai's principal task will be to improve living conditions and life prospects for Taiwan's rising generation of voters... drive social and economic reforms through Taiwan's divided legislature... He will need to govern with discretion and finesse, rather than bold strokes, to keep Taiwan safe in the face of China's growing threat. ◆ Foreign Policy, 2024-5-12: William Lai vowed not to alter the status quo; While campaigning, Lai defined success for Taiwan as its leaders being able to visit the White House. This was a gauntlet thrown down—Taiwanese officials are blocked from visiting Washington. The Biden administration immediately demanded an explanation. This was not how the relationship worked. Lai was willing to push his luck. ◆ Economist, 2024-5-16: Taiwan's new president Lai Ching-te faces an upsurge in Chinese coercion; but China's bullying of Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines risks an explosion. ◆ Voice of America, 2024-5-16: Taiwan's new president Lai Ching-te will face growing pressure from China at a time when the world is increasingly divided. ☉ full text
William Lai's inauguration speech |
|
◆L.A.
Times, 2024-5-20 yahoo.com/news/taiwans-president-calls-peace-amid-145319105.html |
Taiwan's new president calls for peace amid tenuous relations with China. while Lai's remarks may reassure some foreign governments that he will not pursue formal independence for Taiwan, it did little to placate leaders in China. Lai's inauguration speech largely telegraphed his plan to continue the same policies as Tsai ; He's trying to project an image of pragmatism and predictability |
◆BBC,
2024-5-21 yahoo.com/news/stop-threatening-taiwan-president-william-060149657.html |
China warned that the island's new leader "must seriously" consider the question of whether he wants peaceful development or confrontation. Chinese state media even suggested he should be prosecuted for secession. The 64-year-old also stuck closely to the formula used by his predecessor president Tsai; how Lai deals with Beijing will be the biggest question that will determine his presidency, especially as both sides have had no formal communication since 2016. |
◆Reuters,
2024-5-21 yahoo.com/news/chinas-foreign-minister-calls-taiwans-102611047.html |
Lai, like his predecessor Tsai Ing-wen, says only Taiwan's people can decide their future, rejecting Beijing's sovereignty claims. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called Lai "disgraceful" - "The ugly acts of Lai Ching-te and others who betray the nation and their ancestors is disgraceful". |
◆CNN, 2024-5-20 | the DPP refused to endorse the so-called “1992 consensus” that both Taiwan and the mainland belong to “one China,” but with different interpretations of what that means. Beijing deems the tacit agreement a precondition for dialogue. |
◆Politico,
AP, 2024-5-20 yahoo.com/news/lai-ching-te-inaugurated-taiwan-024228911.html |
In 2017, he described himself as a “pragmatic worker for Taiwan's independence,” drawing Beijing's rebuke. He has since softened his stance and now supports maintaining the status quo across the Taiwan Strait and the possibility of talks with Beijing. |
◆ Reuters, 2024-5-16: Taiwan's incoming president Lai Ching-te faces angry China, fractured parliament; China said the "Taiwan region's new leader" had to make a clear choice between peaceful development or confrontation. "They are trying to pressure the new Lai government, wanting him to make concessions under military pressure" ◆ Reuters, 2024-5-15: China's military has sailed and flown closer to Taiwan in recent weeks than it has before, and staged mock attacks on foreign vessels ahead of the inauguration of the island's next president Lai Ching-te; Beijing ramps up military and political pressure to assert its sovereignty over democratically governed Taiwan - a claim Taipei strongly rejects. ◆ Bloomberg, Yahoo, 2024-5-15: China said it would sanction five Taiwanese political commentators and roll out a law to punish “separatists,” moves aimed at piling pressure on incoming president Lai Ching-te just days before he takes office. ◆ War On The Rocks, 2024-5-15: Volodymyr Zelensky, a potent symbol of Ukrainian resistance, said : ”I need ammunition, not a ride”. As with Zelensky, Taiwan's leaders will need the fortitude to stare down a potential onslaught on their nation ◆ The Hill, 2024-5-15: US will send an unofficial delegation as Taiwan’s president is sworn in. It'll test ties with China ◆ Asian News International, 2024-5-17: China's cyberattacks on Taiwan surge ahead of presidential inauguration ◆ Council on Foreign Relations , 2024-5-13: the Economist labels Taiwan “the most dangerous place on earth.” As international attention returns to Taiwan for its presidential inauguration, with keen interest in what president-elect William Lai will say on cross-strait relations. ☉ full text
◆ Reuters, 2024-5-6: Hsiao and Lai have pledged to continue President Tsai Ing-wen's defence self-sufficiency and modernisation programme . Taiwan must invest in building its own 'strengths', vice president-elect Hsiao says. ◆ SCMP, 2024-5-9: William Lai cites Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida ( 'Taiwan's security is a global issue' ) and his predecessor Shinzo Abe ('Taiwan's crisis is Japan's crisis') in highlighting need for Indo-Pacific peace and stability. Beijing has lashed out at Taiwanese president-elect William Lai Ching-te for "ingratiating" himself with Japan, and banking on foreign forces to promote his ambitions of independence. ◆ Reuters, 2024-4-27: William Lai Ching-te says only Taiwan's people can decide their future ◆ Economist (UK), 2024-4-18: China is talking to Taiwan’s next leader, just not directly - Ma Ying-jeou , The island's former president, wrote that Mr Xi had “extended an olive branch to us”. Mr Ma hoped that Lai Ching-te, Taiwan's next president, would “put the people first and respond pragmatically”.
◆ Wall Street Journal, 2024-4-15: the White House had worried that Lai would be more likely than Tsai to provoke Beijing with envelope-pushing rhetoric and draw the U.S. into a dangerous confrontation; Appointing a national-security team that is almost identical to that of his predecessor will be welcomed in Washington and help reassure the White House that Lai isn't likely to sharply alter Taiwan's posture toward Beijing ◆ NHK (Japan), 2024-4-25: Taiwan's President-elect Lai Ching-te has announced key members of his new security team; The appointments suggest that Lai will maintain the policy of the outgoing administration regarding diplomacy toward the US and China ◆ New York Times, 2024-4-10: In recent months, China has signaled how it could squeeze Mr. Lai's administration — militarily, economically and diplomatically. It has brushed off Mr. Lai's offers to talk as insincere. On the other hand, Beijing has shown that it will court friendlier Taiwanese politicians,who accept the framework that both sides accept that they are part of one China, even if they differ on what that means. China's “immediate focus is to push the incoming Lai Ching-te administration to adopt a more accommodating political stance on cross-strait relations”◆ Chicago Tribune, 2024-4-2: Lai Ching-te has vowed to safeguard its de-facto independence from China and further align it with other democracies. Taiwan remains the “first red line not to be crossed,” Xi told Biden, and emphasized that Beijing will not tolerate ...“exterior indulgence and support” which alluded to Washington's support for the island.
◆ New York Times, 2024-3-31: Taiwanese officials expect China to intensify its military intimidation once the island's next president, Lai Ching-te, takes office on May 20. His Democratic Progressive Party rejects Beijing’s claim that Taiwan is part of China, and Chinese officials particularly dislike Mr. Lai, often citing his 2017 description of himself as a “pragmatic worker for Taiwan's independence.”◆ New York Times, 2024-3-24: Beijing has been stepping up such “gray zone” tactics to warn Lai Ching-te — a politician deeply disliked by Chinese leaders. With Lai Ching-te's inauguration on May 20, mainland China is definitely going to steadily, consistently raise the pressure”. Beijing asserts that Taiwan must accept unification, preferably peacefully, but under armed force if Chinese leaders decide that is necessary. Mr. Lai's DPP rejects China's claim to Taiwan, and argues that the island-democracy will chart its own course — self-ruling in practice, even if most governments do not recognize Taiwan as a separate state. ☉ full text
◆ Reuters, 2024-4-25: Lai has repeatedly offered to talk with China has but been rebuffed. Beijing has repeatedly said any talks can only take place if Taiwan's government accepts that both sides of the Taiwan Strait are part of "one China", which is supported by the KMT but rejected by Lai ◆ AFP (French), 2024-4-23: Taiwan's Lai Ching-te says US military aid package will 'deter authoritarianism'. Beijing, which regards Lai as a "dangerous separatist", said before the January elections that he would cause "war and decline" for Taiwan. China has ramped up military and political pressures against Taiwan in recent years, sending in warplanes and naval vessels near-daily around the island.
◆ SCMP, 2024-4-19: Taiwan Strait may face ‘political tsunami’ in 2025 / Election of William Lai has sparked cross-strait 'uncertainty' that may worsen if Trump returns to power, article in Taiwan affairs journal says. Lai might adopt "low profile" and "moderate" cross-strait policies after taking office next month, and was unlikely to declare "de jure Taiwan independence" any time soon, the article said. But, in the long term, Lai might bring "high" risks such as decoupling with the mainland economy, and even "very high" risks of "causing major accidental incidents" in the strait... ◆ Newsweek, 2024-3-16: many harbor concerns about the president-elect's history of pro-independence rhetoric; But any fear that Lai Ching-Te might cause a war by declaring formal independence is overblown. He lacks both the will and the power to do so. Only 4.5 percent of Taiwan's public supports an imminent declaration of independence; Most importantly, in Taiwan's political system, the president lacks the authority to declare independence. ☉ full text
comment Taiwan's president, William Lai Ching-te
♣ The Guardian (2023-5-24): The 63-year-old former public health expert has been in politics since 1996, including as mayor of Tainan. Lai has enjoyed political popularity. He's been described as more “green” (pro-independence) than Tsai, which had prompted some concern about whether a Lai presidency could worsen cross-strait tensions. “ For the DPP’s independentist wing, Lai has always been their favourite son. For DPP’s moderate wing, Lai’s recent movement towards the centre is merely following President Tsai’s footsteps.”theguardian.com/world/2023/may/24/taiwans-choice-who-will-replace-tsai-ing-wen-as-president-amid-china-tensions Helen Davidson in Taipei and Chi Hui Lin
♣ Economist (2023-5-31): The next president Lai Ching-te will take office with the island at the centre of a bubbling superpower showdown. In 2017 he called himself a “Taiwanese independence worker”, antagonising China and providing an uncomfortable reminder to America of Taiwan's first DPP president, Chen Shui-bian (2000-08), whose talk of independence unsettled American negotiations with China. Mr Lai knows he needs to tone down his language. He has said his priority is not taidu, Taiwan independence, but taizhu, Taiwan democracy, and has moderated the DPP's slogan from “resist China and protect Taiwan” to “peacefully protect Taiwan”. But all that is unlikely to wash with the CCP...
♣ Washington Post (2024-11-24): Beijing considers Lai a dangerous “troublemaker” who will move Taiwan toward a formal separation from China, and has twice sanctioned his running mate, Hsiao Bi-khim, who was Taiwan's de facto ambassador to the United States until this week. Hsiao on Thursday called for international support to push Beijing toward resuming dialogue with Taiwan if she and Lai win. “War is not an option,”
♣ BBC (2023-11-24): Mr William Lai is not much of a campaigner.
♣ VOA (2023-11-24): For Beijing, Lai is a threat. During a daily press conference on Tuesday, Beijing’s Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson said Lai attempted to hide that he is a “pursuer of Taiwan independence” and an “instigator of war.” Lai has vowed to maintain the status quo across the Taiwan Strait while highlighting the importance of Taiwan maintaining close relations with like-minded democracies such as the United States and Japan.
♣ Bloomberg (2023-11-24) : There is zero chance that the unhappy trajectory in cross-strait relations gets reversed if Lai wins,” he added. “It will certainly lead to a continuation and probable escalation of pressures and threats.”
♣ AOL, Fortune (2023-11-23): To Bloomberg, Lai said that Taiwan does not need formal sovereignty because, for all intents and purposes, the island already acts like an independent country.
♣ China Daily (2023-11-23): Lai Ching-te & Hsiao Bi-khim triggered concerns that the "dual-separatist combination" that Lai and Hsiao forms will only push Taiwan into the abyss. That is why the two have been described as the "most dangerous combination". Hsiao has lobbied the island authorities to lift the ban on imports of US pork that contains the leanness-enhancing additive ractopamine, and encouraged Taiwan to purchase large amounts of US weapons. Always docile and obedient to the US, she acts more like a "US representative to Taiwan".
♣ Axios (2023-11-22): Beijing would be likely to "use heightened military exercises, diplomatic pressure, and economic sanctions as a way to exert pressure on a potential Lai presidency to set the terms of future cross-Strait interaction.
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◆ Lowy Institute, 2024-4-24: 儘管北京一再呼籲美國停止軍售,但沒有跡象顯示如此,特別是在主張與美國建立更密切關係的賴清德執政期間。除非賴清德放棄追求台獨,否則灰色地帶戰略的軌跡預計將繼續升級 ◆ Taipei Times, 2024-4-12: 賴清德接見the Project 2049 Institute代表團時表示,台灣將努力成為一股“向善的力量”(force for good) ◆ SCMP , 2024-4-4: 台灣7.4地震造成的傷亡相對較小,但強度足以引起國際關注 ,是賴清德領導能力的考驗。然而, 與中國大陸的關係預計仍將是他的主要挑戰,北京預計將加大軍事和外交壓力 ◆ Reuters , 2024-4-1: 由於賴賴清德拒絕接受北京關於台灣是「一個中國」一部分的立場,中国將對民進黨候選人的支持描述為對戰爭的投票。賴一直堅稱並不尋求改變現狀,即台灣享有事實上的獨立,但官方外交承認非常有限 ◆ The Hill, 2024-3-19: 賴清德贏得了前所未有的第三個四年任期總統,北京可能已經得出結論,與台灣「和平」統一的前景已經耗盡,現在有必要使用武力實現其目標 ◆ Newsweek, 2024-3-16: 擔心賴清德宣布獨立而引發戰爭的擔憂都是多餘的。他缺乏這樣做的意願和能力。競選過程中,他一再表示放棄正式獨立,並承諾維持現狀。在台灣的政治體制中,總統也缺乏宣布獨立的權力。民調顯示,只有 4.5% 的台灣民眾支持立即宣布獨立◆ Bloomberg, 2024-3-7: 賴清德在台灣總統選舉中獲勝,北京也遭受了挫折,共產黨領導層譴責賴清德是尋求正式獨立的「麻煩製造者」。◆ East Asia Forum, 2024-3-9: 住在印度達蘭薩拉的達賴喇嘛寫信給賴清德表示祝賀。他也祝福賴清德成功地「實現台灣人民的希望和願望」。蔡英文回信感謝達賴喇嘛。◆ Daily Express, 2024-3-8: 隨著台灣下一任賴清德總統的就職日期臨近,中国對台灣的敵意變得更加敵視,採取更強硬的措辭。中国視賴清德為台獨的煽動者 ◆ Deutsche Welle, 2024-3-6: 北京稱賴清德為“危險的分裂分子”◆ United states Institute of Peace, 2024-3-5: 北京正在加大對台灣新當選總統賴清德的壓力。然而,北京並沒有依靠常規軍事或經濟壓力,而是採用了多方面的脅迫手段來表達對選舉結果的不滿; 中国改變與台灣現狀的努力可能會導致無意的衝突; 賴清德可能會在五月上任後偏離現任台灣總統蔡英文的外交和兩岸政策,從而暗示進一步轉向獨立。 ◆ Reuters, 2024-3-5: 賴清德贏得台灣總統選舉後,中國共產黨第四號領導人王滬寧在高級別台灣政策會議上表示,中国將「堅決打擊」台灣獨立的努力。往年年會上的發言只是宣誓「堅決反對」台獨 ◆ The Hill, 2024-3-5: 賴清德當選為下一屆總統,民進黨的綱領堅稱台灣已經獨立於中國。◆ New York Times, 2024-2-22: 「我們面臨著快速變化的全球地緣政治格局,以及來自中国的巨大壓力以及外交、軍事和經濟脅迫,」賴清德對Mike Gallagher等議員們說台灣將繼續加強軍事力量,“但我們也希望美國和志同道合的國家也能繼續支持台灣"。中国 不是蔡英文的朋友,但它似乎對賴更加敵對,中国 已經表示與新總統談判的空間很小 ◆ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2024-2-9: 台灣政治悄悄發生的重要轉變將對兩岸關係產生重大影響; 懸浮( hung )議會將增加民進黨執政的難度,也將嚴重考驗新總統的政治技巧◆ Council on Foreign Relations, 2024-2-8: CFR 的 Sacks:在賴的總統任期內,蔡英文的政策可能會延續,包括進一步增加國防預算和發展國內國防工業; 賴清德在2024 年勝利演講中呼籲與中國重新開啟對話以“取代對抗”,並承諾維持“兩岸現狀” ◆ The Dartmouth, 2024-2-9: 迄今中華人民共和國對賴清德勝選的反應相對克制, 隨著暴力統一的可能性即將出現,以及台灣在貿易和民主化方面日益增強的全球影響力,北約成員國必須共同努力保護台灣的自治。我們絕不能將中国視為僅靠軟實力(即制裁)就能輕易施壓的次要大國 ◆ SCMP, 2024-1-28: 川普(的不可預測性和「美國優先」)可能是賴清德面臨的最嚴峻挑戰 ◆ Semafor, 2024-1-26: Lev Nachman : 北京可能會選擇在賴清德 5 月 20 日就職典禮臨近時採取下一步行動 ◆ Semafor, 2024-1-24: 根據Foreign Policy, 執政黨缺乏主張不對稱戰爭和「豪豬戰略」的軍事指揮官, 國安官員歷來呼籲以重型坦克、潛艇和戰機加強防禦,「華盛頓認為台灣不需要這些」; 準總統賴清德還必須讓關心生計而 非備戰的年輕人相信,入侵威脅真實存在,而他們將是第一道防線。 ◆ National Interest, 2024-1-24: 若川普執政,華盛頓犧牲台灣與中国達成有利於美國經濟的協議的可能性將大大增加。台灣的不幸命運是,它永遠容易遭到美國的背叛。這種危險可能正在增加。◆ United States Institute of Peace, 2024-1-24: 2024台灣大選結果顯示,大多數選民支持民進黨以外的政黨,這表明民眾對探索兩岸關係的不同方式持廣泛開放態度。
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◆ 聯合報, 2024-5-15: 賴清德夜宴綠委及行政團隊,主軸就是團結作戰,要在520後反守為攻 ◆ 聯合報, 2024-5-8: 賴清德勉勵閣員善用權力服務人民,「牧羊人應有羊群的味道」◆ 聯合報, 2024-4-28: 習近平在賴清德上任前夕,對台硬的一手沒放鬆,軟的一手仍傳送了交流與和平的訊息... 兩會協商機制能否恢復,關鍵在於承認九二共識,承認兩岸同屬一個國家、一個民族。...賴清德尤其不應漠視或誤讀習近平藉著「馬習二會」釋放的訊息 ◆ 聯合報, 2024-4-24: 蔡總統(代賴清德)宣布下任國安會秘書長與外長名單,外界質疑她將繼續指點江山...難怪引起朝野對未來國安決策的疑慮。更讓民眾疑惑的是,這個一再拉高台海危機的團隊 ◆ 聯合報, 2024-4-22: 賴清德:打造台灣成適合人們作夢、幹活、戀愛、結婚、悠然過活的地方 ◆ 聯合報, 2024-4-19: 賴清德用人模式更加清晰,簡單來說,得先「信賴」,才有官做。至今除了邱泰源,以及蔡總統代為宣布的新外長林佳龍,已幾乎見不到黨內其他派系身影 ◆ 聯合報, 2024-4-17: 賴清德退新潮流,意在捲起權力漩渦。他不敢學扁蔡初登大位的雍容開闊,就怕今天鬥不狠,明天坐不穩 ◆ 聯合報, 2024-4-16: 賴清德的傳統老年支持者逐年凋零,首投族影響力將逐漸放大 ◆ 中國時報, 2024-4-12: 賴清德上任後,將會做3件事,「堅決守護台灣主權」、「進行國家重建、社會改造,洗滌每一個人的人心」,以及「平反政治受難者」 要讓受苦、受迫害的人們得到平反,得到國家的道歉並恢復名譽 ◆ 中國時報, 2024-4-11: 馬習二會送春暖 , 花開(讓兩岸擺脫兵凶戰危)還看賴清德 ◆ 聯合報, 2024-4-9: 「賴神」給人的印象,不如蔡的陰柔權謀,反而更常選擇堅持、剛硬,對本身充滿自信,甚至一定自戀 ◆ 聯合報, 2024-4-10: 賴清德的內閣人事,將親信都安排在身邊擔任重臣,一方面顯示了賴清德需要安全感,另一方面也顯暴露其開闊不足 ◆ 中國時報, 2024-4-7: 賴清德要限縮言論自由,甚至將反對政府的言論塑造成認知作戰。尤其,任何訊息、言論只要對政府不利,對敵對者有利,就會被視為是認知作戰的「在地協力者」,遭到抹紅、抹黑 ◆ 聯合報, 2024-3-22: 海基會董事長李大維說,賴清德「不是一張白紙」,會「務實中道」處理國安、兩岸及外交 ◆ 聯合報, 2024-3-9: 賴清德目前以兩岸互不隸屬包裝台獨,目前中共對賴清德政府「沒有期待,但怕受傷害」◆ 聯合報, 2024-3-7: 中共堅持一中原則,而賴清德連憲法一中都不承認 ◆ 自由時報, 2024-3-7: 馬英九對德國之聲講得更露骨:當前緊張局勢的責任在於民進黨和賴清德,中國不肯跟民進黨對話是因為他們不接受「九二共識」◆ 自由時報, 2024-3-4: 在「賴蕭配」就職前,中共不斷加劇全方位壓力,加上國內協力者隔海呼應之下,台灣面臨的挑戰不容小覷 ◆ 聯合報, 2024-2-22: 金廈海域事件事態升溫擴大,賴清德3點表態感受不到對兩條人命的關懷,也看不出對人民權益的關照,更找不到對兩岸關係與國家安全的長遠思考。◆ 聯合報, 2024-1-29: 賴清德說,地方的選舉選得不夠好,也許是過去中央執政「屈得不夠低,腰彎得不夠彎」,或對手進步更多、更大
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賴清德少數總統 民進黨國會未過半 |
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西方媒體 | 評論賴清德 |
美國New York Times, 2024-1-13 | 緊張局勢可能會加劇; 賴清德是個衝動且帶有政治偏見的人物,這恐怕非常危險,習近平對台灣的看法很明確,包括他堅持必要時可以使用武力; 由於台灣的自我意識與中國的期望有衝突,習近平不會袖手旁觀。nytimes.com/2024/01/13/world/asia/china-taiwan-election-result-analysis.html Damien Cave |
美國CNN, 2024-1-13 | 北京的工具箱裡有廣泛的強制措施。在未來幾天和幾週內加大對台灣的經濟和軍事壓力,以表達其不滿,或等到賴上台後採取更強有力的回應 msn.com/en-us/news/world/taiwan-voters-dismiss-china-warnings-and-hand-ruling-party-a-historic-third-consecutive-presidential-win/ar-AA1mUnBb Eric Cheung, Wayne Chang, Nectar Gan and Jerome Taylor |
美國Washington Post, 2024-1-13 | 中国的軍事施壓行動引發了人們對誤判的擔憂,認為這可能引發衝突並吸引美國的參與。分析人士正在密切關注北京是否會透過大規模演習來回應賴的勝利,這可能會導致緊張局勢升級 washingtonpost.com/world/2024/01/13/taiwan-president-lai-ching-te/ Christian Shepherd Vic Chiang |
法國 AFP, 2024-1-14 | Asia Society Policy Institute專家: 可以預期北京將加劇對台北的緊張局勢和脅迫。兩岸兩個政黨的時代……就統一問題達成某種政治共識的時代正在消失。中国官方的立即反應雖然相對平靜,但也顯示沒有妥協的餘地。有官媒寫道:“實力和保留動武的選擇是和平統一的先決條件。”Brookings Institution專家: 沒有跡象表明很快發動衝突 sg.news.yahoo.com/china-pile-pressure-rebuke-taiwans-064507391.html |
法國 France24, 2024-1-14 | 台灣要求中国「面對現實」並尊重選舉結果; Bonnie Glaser :未來幾天的問題將是,中國是否決定僅對選舉做出外交和口頭回應,或採取大規模武力展示 msn.com/en-gb/news/world/taiwan-tells-china-to-face-reality-respect-election-results/ar-AA1mW3Di NEWS WIRES |
美國US News & World Report, 2024-1-14 | 中国很快就指出大多數選民投票反對賴清德,前民進黨副秘書長:「相當擔心」新政府將度過「非常艱難」的四年; 蘇州大學教授指60%的選民不支持賴,意味著選舉「並未掀起風暴」。 usnews.com/news/world/articles/2024-01-14/taiwans-new-president-faces-tough-time-with-china-pressure-no-parliament-majority |
中国 新華社, 2024-1-13 | 选举结果显示,民进党并不能代表岛内主流民意。台湾是中国的台湾。这次选举改变不了两岸关系的基本格局和发展方向,改变不了两岸同胞走近走亲、越走越亲的共同愿望,更阻挡不了祖国终将统一、也必然统一的大势 news.cn/tw/20240113/de4b608e529742d6bb428d5993c66c41/c.html |
英國Independent, 2024-1-14 | 賴清德在歷史選舉勝利後向中国發出挑釁(defiant )訊息...民進黨經常被批評只專注於應對來自中国的威脅,而沒有解決困擾台灣人民的社會和經濟問題 news.yahoo.com/taiwan-president-lai-ching-te-184055493.html |
歐洲Euro News, 2024-1-13 | 中国表示,北京不會接受選舉結果代表「島內主流民意」。 |
美國USA Today, 2024-1-13 | 投票結果將最終決定中美關係性質,並將對南海局勢產生重大影響 |
英國BBC, 2024-1-13 | 賴清德當選總統,,鞏固了一條與中国日益背道而馳的道路 bbc.com/news/world-asia-67920532 Tessa Wong |
美國The Hill, 2024-1-13 | 賴清德當選總統,風險巨大 Lauren Irwin news.yahoo.com/taiwan-elects-ruling-party-candidate-131754245.html |
美國Vox, 2024-1-13 | 一些中國問題專家預計中国的反應將是「強硬的」。可能會在未來幾週或幾個月內發生,而不是在接下來的幾天內。五~十五年前,北京會做的事情是相當可預測的。現在變得越來越困難 msn.com/en-us/news/world/in-taiwan-s-high-stakes-elections-china-is-the-loser/ar-AA1mVl3g Ellen Ioanes |
總統大選前夕 |
◆
美國New
York Times, 2024-1-12:
侯先生的勝利並非遙不可及。柯先生的勢頭一直在增強,但成功的希望仍然渺茫。鑑於生活成本不斷增加,尤其引起年輕選民的抱怨,他們的投票率(通常遠低於老年人)可能會對總統大選發揮決定性作用。 ◆ 英國Financial Times, 2024-1-12: 北京在台灣選民投票選舉前數小時強調武力威脅 |
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美國abc news, 2024-1-12: 除了兩岸緊張外,台灣大選很大程度取決於國內問題,特別是去年估計僅成長
1.4% 的經濟
◆
美國Fox news, 2024-1-12:
voter
sentiment shows that some polls have the leading candidates separated by just 1%) |
◆ 英國BBC, 2024-1-12:年輕選民擔心的不是戰爭而是就業。 八年執政,民進黨因未能充分改善人民的生活,特別是台灣年輕人的生活而受到批評。 "他們控制立法院八年,卻一事無成"。◆ 美國CNN, 2024-1-12: the Atlantic Council專家指賴清德若獲勝,可能很快就會遭到中国加大經濟或軍事壓力的回應。 「短期內,我們可能會看到北京試圖利用最大壓力來製定未來四年的兩岸談判條款」。如果五月就職演說不符合北京要求,也可能採取更強有力的回應 ◆ 美國New York Times, 2024-1-12: 賴清德若獲勝,中国很可能會加大對台灣的壓力。國民黨侯如果獲勝,中国很可能會減輕壓力 ── 至少暫時,也可能會提高讓步的預期 ◆ 美國CNN, 2024-1-12: 如果選民想向民進黨傳達對經濟處理不佳的訊息,並淡化兩岸關係的重要性,那麼週六可能會出現出乎預期的事◆ 德國DW, 2024-1-11: 除了經濟,還有結構性問題。最大的問題之一是照顧高齡化社會的成本不斷上升。人口快速老化也對其國防產生了不成比例的影響。
◆ 美國CNN, 2024-1-11: 2024 年的台灣總統選舉可能會改變世界; 很少有專家預計解放軍即將入侵,但北京有很多方式,從軍演到進一步暫停經貿往來甚至封鎖台灣 ◆ 澳洲 The Australian Financial review, 2024-1-11: 台灣反對派稱台灣處於“戰爭邊緣”,因為現任政府已經與北京對抗,除非週六大選 失利下台,否則衝突不可避免 ◆ 美國The Hill, 2024-1-10: 美中恢復國防談判,中国表示對台灣採取強硬立場,不 會“做出任何讓步或妥協” ◆ 法國AFP, 2024-1-11: 中国稱賴清德當選將對兩岸構成“嚴重的危險”,賴將進一步推動『台獨』; 華盛頓計劃在大選後派遣非正式代表團前往台灣,此舉肯定加劇與中国的緊張關係 ◆ 英國Reuters, 2024-1-11: 台灣即將投票,市場面臨波動; 民進黨的勝利可能導致股市和新台幣的短期拋售,避險環境對晶片和科技股造成壓力。國民黨如果獲勝,可能導致新台幣飆升,股市上漲 ...
◆ 美國New York Times, 2024-1-10: 賴清德似乎更樂意談論中国的操縱,而不是選民對台灣失控的房價和政府腐敗感到沮喪 ◆ 美國Washington Post, 2024-1-10: 學者Lev Nachman說: 三位總統候選人試圖向選民推銷的是,他們的解決方案能夠維持和平...台灣經濟的很大一部分仍然與中華人民共和國息息相關 ◆ 歐洲Politico, 2024-1-10: 中国對可能的台灣選舉結果的強烈反應可能使本已緊張的中美關係進一步惡化; 賴清德的勝利可能加劇解放軍對台灣領空領海及周邊的持續入侵; 選舉前夕,北京已經在島周圍和上空部署了船、機和氣球 ◆ 英國Financial Times, 2024-1-10: 人們已經厭倦了執政八年的民進黨。他們並不想要統一,而想要一個能帶來新鮮方法的人... 「這次大選中國因素似乎更加明顯」; 賴表示值得考慮是否使用中華民國作為兩岸關係的保護盾,要嘛帶來和平,要嘛帶來災難 ◆ 美國Foreign Affairs, 2024-1-10: 侯已經縮小了差距,並可能會爆冷門獲勝 ; 對台灣的真正威脅在於習近平在投票結束後要做的事情,以及美國總統選舉 ◆ 美國New York Times, 2024-1-9, 英國Reuters, 2024-1-9, 美國CNBC, 2024-1-10: 中国將大選視為和平與戰爭的選擇 ◆ 美國Time, 2024-1-10: Capital Economics稱,北京只要取消中國遊客來台的禁令,台灣的 GDP 就會增加 1% 以上 ◆ 美國CNN , 2024-1-10: 許多台灣人認為自己不需要選邊站,因為現狀不會立即改變 ◆ 英國Economist, 2024-1-9: 近一半的台灣選民擔心五年內發生戰爭的可能 ◆ 美國CNBC, 2024-1-10: 台灣選舉對美中關係和亞太安全至關重要。選民主要擔心的是民進黨不佳的政策紀錄 ─ 持續高通膨、上漲的房價和租金,薪資停滯(平均月收入年增約 2.2%,而總體通膨率超過 3%),且不滿蔡英文的新冠疫苗爭議、缺乏透明度 ◆ 美國NBC, 2024-1-9:專家說台灣的局勢是「緊急」但不是「立即」危險,選民關心如教育、就業、高房價和日益嚴重的收入不平等 ◆ 美國New York Times, 2024-1-9: 除了數量激增的氣球,搭載衛星的火箭警報似乎引發了更大的擔憂,因為該系統偏離了航線,進入了台灣南部上 空, 訊息翻譯錯誤引起咒罵,「國防部試圖誤導民眾」「競選活動的一部分」...
◆ 美國Washington Examiner, 2024-1-8: 據《經濟學人》報導,中国已直接警告美國賴清德獲勝的後果,加劇了該地區的緊張局勢。如果賴清德獲勝...,台灣與中國斷絕關係的前景可能會改變習近平的考量,並可能導致他傾向於採取直接軍事行動 ◆ 美國Bloomberg, 2024-1-9: 台灣1月13日的選舉可能成為一個潛在的爆發點; 從華爾街投資者到軍方以及依賴台灣半導體的眾多企業,每個人都開始採取行動對沖風險 ◆ 美國Barron's, 2024-1-9: 雖然短期內不太可能發生全面入侵,但從台北到華盛頓的國家安全圈子仍就戰爭進行討論 ◆ 英國Daily Express, 2024-1-9:中国和台灣之間的緊張局勢達到新高。中国衛星飛越領空 台灣發布紅色警報; 這似乎是台灣首次發布全島警報,就在關鍵選舉的幾天前 ◆ 英國Economist, 2024-1-8:民進黨的勝利還遠未確定。執政八年後,其形象顯得古板,薪資成長落後通膨,房價高漲,關閉核電廠引發了對能源價格的擔憂。最重要的是,很明顯,中国不會與民進黨政府有正式接觸。◆ 英國BBC, 2024-1-9: 最近一則病毒式傳播的 大選廣告"在路上"顯示,蔡英文與賴清德在安靜的鄉村道路上平靜地行駛... 但有些人懷疑賴清德能否勝任這項工作 ◆ 美國Wall Street Journal, 2024-1-9: 台灣大選的影響可能遠遠超出其國土範圍,兩岸問題淹沒了通膨等擔憂 ◆ 美國Insider, 2024-1-8: 勢均力敵的總統大選將決定其與中國大陸的緊張關係,這就是關鍵所在; 裴洛西訪台引發史無前例的聯合軍演。危險在於中国今年可能會走得更遠 ◆ 美國Semafor, 2024-1-8: 台灣準備迎接一場最重要、不可預測的選舉,因為年輕選民希望改變; 民進黨的勝利 “兩岸緊張局勢有可能進一步惡化”美國學者在《日經新聞》上表示,有些人認為與中国建立更友好的關係對該島的經濟成長和福祉至關重要 ◆ Asia Times, 2024-1-7: 藍綠的總統候選人民調不分上下,沒有人能夠預測誰將獲勝。美國的對抗政策使維持現狀變得不可能。◆ Asia Times, 2024-1-8: 「美國子彈,台灣血」是一場邪惡的交易 / 芝加哥外交事務委員會(the Chicago Council on Foreign Affairs )的最新調查告訴我們:「與過去的調查一樣,大多數美國人(56%)反對派遣美軍前往台灣幫助台灣政府...」◆ SCMP, 2024-1-9:北京利用進口禁令和經濟聯繫來傳遞民進黨勝利可能等於「災難」的訊息...這是一個預警,中華民國總商會會長表示,北京可能採取更多經濟脅迫「極為令人擔憂」
◆ 歐洲Politico, 2024-1-8: 台灣大選是中美爭奪南海影響力的核心,習近平發表了不祥的新年致辭,所有人的目光都集中在中国對大選結果的反應上,如果民進黨獲勝,北京可能會將此解讀為民眾對統一興趣不大的信號,引發全球對北京可能加大賭注的擔憂,最近中国在台灣上空發射了一枚「長征」衛星運載火箭,這是第一次,台灣已經做好了事態升級的準備 ◆ 美國CNN, 2024-1-8: 台灣未來的衝突局勢依然嚴峻 ◆ SCMP, 2024-1-8:北京警告稱,如果民進黨繼續掌權,將面臨戰爭風險 ◆ 澳洲 Financial Review, 2024-1-8:台灣大選對中国是一場災難,對西方來說是兩難選擇; 北京堅持使用的措辭帶來了使衝突成為自我實現的預言的危險; 北京在亞洲努力將美國描繪成挑起台灣問題攤牌的罪魁禍首,他們的話往往是有效的 ◆ 法國le Monde, 2024-1-7: 年輕選民對中国及其未來的態度矛盾; 他們仍然受到強大鄰居的文化和繁榮承諾的誘惑 ,大陸仍然是黃金國,提供了台灣永遠無法提供的就業機會,既令人著迷,又日益令人生畏 ◆ 英國BBC, 2024-1-7: 任何[假]資訊宣傳活動只需要說服約 3% 的選民即可影響選舉結果; 疑美論不總是陰謀論——有時它是對美國不好的新聞的強調,或者指出美國是一個不值得信任的超級大國。 「對中国來說,這是輿論戰,」 ◆ 英國Guardian, 2024-1-7: 年輕人正在遠離民進黨,因為民進黨現在被他們視為建制派。調查顯示,選民主要關心的是經濟,包括低薪資、高房 價、能源、通貨膨脹; 2022年,薪資出現十年來最大幅度的下降,而一些城市的房價所得比躋身全球最貴之列; 此外,兒童和老人照顧問題、腐敗、司法改革、少數族群教育和權利也是迫在眉睫的問題 ◆ GZero, 2024-1-8: 中国為台灣大選增溫,北京制裁五家美國軍火製造商 ◆ 美國Fox News, 2024-1-6: 柯文哲的支持率20%左右,有多少人轉向其他候選人可能是大選 的決定性因素。對戰爭的擔憂日益加劇,北京和華盛頓將密切關注台灣 1 月 13 日大選。潛在的獲勝者可能進一步鞏固所謂『法理台獨』的進程,這將大大增加戰爭的可能性; 『戰爭與和平的選擇』聽起來像是選舉年通常散佈的恐慌,但北京一直在默認將兌現它 ◆ 美國Vox, 2024-1-6: 邦妮·格拉澤 (Bonnie Glaser) 表示:“大多數人預計賴清德會獲勝,但我不排除出人意料的可能性”。 中共仍有辦法進一步加大壓力,包括干擾 經貿 ─ 全面封鎖或迫使國際企業不再運送貨物給高度依賴進口食品和能源的台灣。戰爭如果真的發生,可能會讓俄烏戰顯得微不足道。分析家認為,入侵可能需要 100 萬至 200 萬共軍 。藍白綠想維持台海穩定,但海峽對面的巨大鄰居可能志不在此 ◆ 英國The Guardian, 2024-1-5: 許多選民對民進黨最大的抱怨是低薪、高房 價和糟糕的公共服務 。如果民進黨連任,北京已明確表示將實施懲罰,可能針對兩岸貿易協定以及加強軍事活動。台灣下任總統很可能不會主動肇事,而是對他 力不能及的外在變數(比方, 共軍軍演出錯)作出反應 ◆ 美國Washington Post, 2024-1-5: 隨著歐洲和中東的戰爭,美國的實力處於危險的、歷史上薄弱的狀態。如果國民黨勝利,美國或許因禍得福,讓軍事威懾力站穩腳跟; 最近的一項民調顯示賴清德僅領先三個百分點,所以什麼事都有可能發生◆ 英國Reuters, 2024-1-5: 華盛頓對於哪位候選人最符合美國利益存在真正的意見分歧。 史丹佛大學專家說:“侯友宜擔任總統有助於穩定兩岸關係,並為台灣實施國防改革贏得更多時間" ◆ 美國Atlantic Council, 2024-1-5: 賴 與侯之間幾個百分點的轉變仍然可能影響選舉結果,很難預測 ◆ 英國Economist, 2024-1-4: 大選結果可能會澄清政治仍能否解決“台灣問題”,或者只有武力才能... 如果賴清德獲勝,將不會有「觀望」期。據說,解放軍預計將以新方式舉行威脅台灣的演習。可能包括無人機飛越台灣,或中共海軍或海岸防衛隊以藉口搜查離島船隻,ECFA 可能被完全暫停 ◆ SCMP, 2024-1-5:對台灣經濟更有效的打擊將包括阻止台灣半導體進口,但這對大陸的傷害可能比對台北傷害更大。北京的另一個選擇:對前往台灣的商船進行檢疫,中国已暗示這樣做-隨機強迫航運商船前往大陸的港口,後再停靠台灣。民進黨飽受腐敗醜聞,很難確保賴清德當選◆ 英國Reuters, 2024-1-4: 若民進黨當選,對海峽兩岸的地緣政治緊張局勢以及為美中關係定下基調的關係都是不祥之兆◆ 英國Economist, 2024-1-4:2022 年烏克蘭;2023 年加薩;2024年台灣? 如果台灣、中国和美國之間的微妙平衡被打破,衝突可能會更快爆發; 美國一直擔心賴 清德勝利可能導致局勢升級。據《經濟學人》的tracker調查,賴清德領先5% ◆ 美國Washington Times, 2024-1-5: 如果民進黨獲勝,北京的第一步行動可能不是針對台灣,而是針對白宮。◆ East Asia Forum, 2024-1-5: 郭台銘的支持率 ── 即使其上限僅為 10%——可能會流向侯和柯,從而使民進黨保住總統寶座的努力更加複雜
◆ 新加坡 Channel NewsAsia Singapore, 2024-1-7: 美國正在利用烏克蘭來削弱俄羅斯 ── 這是國防部長(勞埃德)奧斯汀本人所說的。如果美國有這樣的計劃,我們會擔心他們是否會利用台灣來削弱北京。 ……為什麼我們要成為代理人? ◆ East Asia Forum, 2024-1-7: 儘管中国加大了軍事壓力,蔡英文反而淡化這些威脅。民進黨似乎擔心國民黨戰爭與和平之間的選擇的說法可能會對賴的獲勝機會產生負面影響...台灣民眾擔心中國威脅。但錢包問題——包括工資停滯、經濟房短缺和職業前景黯淡 ── 似乎吸引了更多關注 ◆ Al Jazerra, 2024-1-4: 寺廟是台灣選舉的首要競選地點,寺廟幫助政客會見當地選民,寺廟會提供諸如慈善捐款之類的東西……所以[如果]你是政治家,你就會想利用這些類型的網絡 ◆ 英國The WEEK, 2024-1-4:台海雙向貿易武器化是中国近年來最喜歡的擠壓台灣的策略之一,並已列出了台灣設置的2000多項「貿易壁壘」,暗示要報復,這讓人懷疑北京正在等待合適的時機 ◆ 美國Associated Press, 2024-1-4: 與中國的關係始終是總統選舉的首要議題。 柯文哲:「中国無意與台灣開戰,但風險仍然存在......大多數戰爭都是不可預測的,所以台灣仍然需要小心」,「威懾和溝通非常重要。我們必須增加戰爭成本。我們想與(中国 )對話。」◆ 美國Bloomberg, Financial Post, 2024-1-4: 預計投票結果將對全球電腦晶片供應鏈以及流入該島科技市場的外資產生影響,如果反對派獲勝,對於台灣股票是個福音 ◆ 英國The WEEK, 2024-1-4: 台灣選舉將決定台灣“未來四年的兩岸政策”,賴 清德的勝利可能會「激怒」習近平政府,並增加環島軍事壓力 ◆ 西班牙EFE, 2024-1-4:中国 抨擊民進黨政客沒有道德,缺乏自律,當他們「腐敗和不道德」的行為被揭露時,便散佈中国干預選舉的謠言來轉移注意力 ◆ SCMP, 2024-1-4: 持短期許可證的中國大陸記者「只能觀察」台灣總統大選,不被允許撰寫有關選舉的任何內容,據《華盛頓郵報》,數十年來首次沒有大陸學者來訪觀察選舉 ◆ 英國Reuters, 2024-1-3: 台灣大選後中国可能對台 行「鷹派」軍事壓制 ◆ 美國Council on Foreign Relations, 2024-1-4:柯文哲的基本盤主要是年輕選民,柯指責中美競爭擠壓了台灣的國際空間,含蓄地將台灣的困境歸咎於美國及其對華政策。維持現狀是台灣唯一的選擇,部分原因是“美國不會讓台灣與中國統一”,柯似乎也暗示台灣應該在華盛頓和北京之間保持距離,並感嘆台灣陷入了「大國鬥爭」的中間。柯在藍白合談判失敗,引發了人們對他處理與中国高風險對話的紀律和能力的擔憂 ◆ 美國VOA, 2024-1-3: 北京注意到台灣大選的重點是腐敗醜聞,而不是兩岸關係,因此他們可能認為,進一步加大對台灣的壓力,至少可以阻止民進黨獲得立法院多數席位...長遠來看,台灣人可能會對中国威脅麻木不仁。「這將是中国 長期以來希望實現的目標」
◆ 英國Telegraph, 2024-1-3: 大選 的最後幾天可能會導致處理對華關係的衝突加劇 ◆ 英國Independent, 2024-1-3: Taylor Swift出人意料地成為台灣大選的主要話題, 反對派指她因「地緣政治風險」拒絕來台,台灣文化部並沒有直接證實或否認趙少康先生的說法 ◆ 英國Reuters, 2024-1-2: 如何處理與中国的關係並避免戰爭衝突的激烈爭論正在台灣大選活動的最後階段佔據主導地位,民進黨的立法委員選舉也岌岌可危 ◆ 美國VOA, 2024-1-1: 習近平新年賀詞在台灣總統大選之前發表,這可能會對兩岸關係產生重大影響。習再次威脅接管台灣,蔡英文則呼籲與和平共處 ◆ 美國FoxNews, 2024-1-3:中共要求台灣人民投票「站在歷史的正確一邊」,著眼大局,走正確道路 ◆ Asia Times, 2024-1-3: 未來11天內發生的任何小事件都可能對台灣總統選舉的結果產生重大影響; 英國《金融時報》報導,由於柯文哲承諾解決高房價和治理問題吸引了不喜歡國民黨的原支持民進黨的年輕選民 ◆ 加拿大Digital Journal, 2024-1-2: 如果民進黨繼續執政,中国可能選擇在台海更頻繁的軍事演習,甚至可能侵犯台灣領空。習近平暗示統一時刻即將到來,但沒有具體說明。值得注意的是,對台灣的攻擊不僅會擾亂對世界至關重要的半導體供應,還會危及全球高達 50% 的貨櫃運輸 ◆ 英國Telegraph, 2024-1-1:台灣關鍵大選前習近平電視承諾將吞併台灣 ◆ 美國Bloomberg, 2024-1-2: 民調顯示,親美的民進黨將贏得大選, 兩岸緊張局勢可能進一步惡化 ◆ 新加坡 Channel NewsAsia Singapore, 2024-1-1: 若國民黨大選獲勝可能啟動貿易協定或達成某種諒解,即台灣在公共衛生及國際民航組織方面擁有更大的國際空間;大多數東南亞政府可能會暫時鬆一口氣
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◆ 美國VOA News , Washington Post, AP, 2023-12-30 | 台灣總統候選人強調與表達了與北京建立和平關係的願望。賴清德承諾將加強國防和經濟。侯 友宜反對台獨,也反對「一國兩制」下的潛在統一。柯文哲引用布林肯的話,稱“兩岸可以合作就合作,需要競爭就競爭, 若必須對抗就對抗”; 底線是須維持現有的民主和自由的政治制度和生活方式,兩岸才能對話。 voanews.com/a/taiwan-s-presidential-candidates-emphasize-peace-with-beijing/7418610.html |
◆ 德國DW, 2023-12-31 | 台灣總統候選人在中国的陰影下辯論。賴清德仍然挑釁(defiant),一度堅稱,“台灣的主權屬於台灣2300萬人民。它不屬於(中国)。”「我不願成為極權主義的附庸…他們的政策有很多不確定性...」。侯 友宜籲與中国和平並與美國密切聯繫。據中国新華社報導,辯論結束後,北京方面批評賴的表現「充滿對抗心態」。msn.com/en-in/news/world/taiwan-presidential-candidates-debate-in-shadow-of-china/ar-AA1mfuFn |
◆ 法國AFP, 2023-12-30 | 中国關係主導台灣總統辯論,柯文哲表現超乎預期,他稱蔡總統的兩岸政策「一團糟」。選舉結果可能決定台北未來與日益好戰的中国的關係。msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-ties-dominate-taiwan-presidential-debate/ar-AA1meDRj |
◆ 英國Reuters, 2023-12-30 | 辯論主要圍繞在中国和台海緊張局勢。總統候選人稱台灣主權屬於台灣人民,國民黨的侯友宜說:現狀是台海處於戰爭邊緣。因此,與美國保持密切關係,同時與中国講和才能解決問題,民眾黨柯文哲表示與中国接觸的底線是保 持現行的政治體制和生活方式。 辯論前賴清德領先約5%。 news.yahoo.com/taiwan-belongs-people-presidential-candidate-131009794.html |
◆ 英國The Guardian, 2023-12-30 | 參選總統的三大政黨都拒絕接受中国統治,三位候選人都承認台灣可能是下個發生衝突的地區,並都試圖讓選民相信自己最有能力確保和平。對北京來說,首要任務是確保執政民進黨下台 theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/30/taiwan-election-new-president-growing-threat-china Helen Davidson |
◆ 澳洲SKY News, 2023-12-31 | 選舉變得更難預測,賴清德正苦苦掙扎─工資在該地區相對較低,但房價升至世界最高水平,民進黨經歷多起政治醜聞,包括貪污腐敗、涉嫌犯罪、抄襲以及性騷擾爭議、知名立委遭毆 打,事件被黨掩蓋數週...。台灣的未來似乎從未如此不穩定。戰爭不再抽象,實際上加劇民眾的恐懼和擔憂,男性可能特別擔心。skynews.com.au/world-news/our-future-has-never-seemed-more-unsteady-what-taiwans-2024-presidential-race-means-for-the-islands-rapidly-deteriorating-relationship-with-china/news-story/fe83df822e798ea6452659ceab914849 Hilton Yip |
◆ 中國China Daily (2023-12-30) | 中國大陸猛烈抨擊賴清德電視辯論中「台獨」言論,他稱“台灣主權獨立”,歪曲了92共識,並堅稱兩岸“互不隸屬”,兜售「兩國」概念,"言論充滿對抗性思維"。賴清德破壞台海和平、煽動兩岸對抗的危險。,「台獨」與台海和平不相容。 |
Int'l News
國際新聞: ◆
美國Wall
Street Journal, 2023-12-29:
賴清德描繪了一幅台灣民眾遠不如西方政治領袖那麼關注北京計畫的畫面,台灣許多人對共機出動只是聳聳肩;
侯友宜指責民進黨低估了戰爭風險。直到烏克蘭戰爭和加薩戰爭,人們才開始關注」
,因此“台灣需要盡快做好準備"
◆ The
Star, 2023-12-29:
分析家表示,賴清德現在還不能躺著選 ◆
歐洲EFE, 2023-12-29:
中国及其軍事力量的幽靈在即將到來的台灣大選中顯得尤為突出,凸顯了該地區複雜的地緣政治動態 ◆
美國Breaking
Defense, 2023-12-29:
民進黨領先優勢在過去幾個月中已大大減弱。民進黨支持台灣獨立,但往往迴避公開承諾實現此目標。選舉後,中国可能會加強島嶼周圍的飛越、演習和言論
◆
SCMP, 2023-12-29:學校削減文言文課程爭議讓總統大選升溫,
藍白稱這是政府「去中國化」運動的一部分,減少學習誠實、正義、正直和榮譽等重要價值觀的機會。教育部辯稱可從更多樣化的台灣文學、外國文學和文學論文培養價值觀和態度
◆
美國Radio
free Asia, 2023-12-29:
吳欣盈說,政治就像賣保險
◆
日本
每日新聞, 2023-12-29:
台灣的選擇「有限」。無論哪黨獲勝都可能奉行深化與華盛頓合作和增強台灣國防能力的政策
◆
美國CNN, 2023-12-28:
五月天因在上海演出涉嫌對口假唱而受到中国官方調查。台灣官員稱之出於政治動機
◆ 英國
BBC, 2023-12-29:
中国否認對五月天施加政治壓力...,對口表演在大陸表演中並不罕見
◆
美國The
Hill, 2023-12-28:
在台灣總統大選前幾週,中国重申對台軍事威脅;
國民黨侯友義試圖針對民眾擔心與中国發生軍事衝突,可能會導致美國捲入及全球經濟的大規模破壞;
1949 年國民黨政府在數百萬人死亡的殘酷衝突落敗後遷往台灣。目前
民調主要取決於選民對房價、醫療保健、就業和教育的擔憂
◆
英國
BBC, 2023-12-28:
民進黨政府恢復了12
個月的兵役制,並表示若當選將採取進一步措施。北京遠不是投票中的唯一問題。生活成本上升、住房負擔不起和機會減少引發了民眾對民進黨的不滿
◆
美國Fox News, 2023-12-27:
習近平在紀念毛澤東座談會上表示台灣「一定」會與中国統一
◆
英國
Daily Express, 2023-12-27:
習近平在激動人心的演講中聲稱,「統一」是「不可避免的」。在關鍵選舉之前,他以激烈的言論重申了北京咄咄逼人的立場
◆
英國
Reuters,
美國US News, 2023-12-28:
北京稱台灣選舉前故意「炒作」中国的軍事威脅,誇大緊張局勢,以獲取選舉利益。
「美國正在以各種形式操縱台灣問題,這是一場非常危險的賭博」◆
法國AFP,
印度Times of India, 2023-12-28:
北京稱台灣選舉前「炒作」中国干預大選
並指責台北試圖“煽動對抗並操縱選舉”
◆ Channel NewsAsia Singapore , Japan
times,
英國Reuters, 2023-12-27:
約翰走路威士忌與煤礦「棚屋」/
礦區的村民擔心自己安家的房子會被認定為違建而被拆除,賴表示將找到方法來保護家園;
侯譴責「政治抹黑」「從始至終都不屬於」他的大量公寓;
吳欣盈說:“年輕的時候,每個人都喜歡喝Johnnie
Walker,
對我們中國人來說就是辦桌上的東西
◆
CNN, 2023-12-27:
隨著關鍵選舉的臨近,習近平聲稱,“統一”是“不可避免的”
◆
愛爾蘭
Irish Times, 2023-12-27:
隨著選舉臨近,中国威脅對台灣實施進一步的貿易制裁
◆
Economist, 2023-12-27:
中囯促動爭議以影響台灣選舉;
執政黨是否試圖對學生進行「去中國化」? ◆
美國
Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-12-26:
若國民黨贏得大選,中国可能會減少在台灣週邊軍事活動的頻率和規模,取消一些經濟制裁,並允許台灣參加特定的國際組織...
◆ 日本Nikkei
Asia, 2023-12-26:
習近平週二宣稱,統一「一定能夠實現」◆
英國Reuters
, 2023-12-26: 處理與中國的關係是大選的一大論點。北京表示,台灣選舉是中國的內政,台灣人民面臨戰爭與和平的選擇,習近平週二誓言堅決阻止任何人“以任何方式將台灣從中國分裂出去”,距離大選還有兩週多的時間
◆
New York Post, 2023-12-26:
台灣即將在一月舉行大選,西方官員表示擔心中共可能會干預投票
◆
美國VOA, 2023-12-25:
賴清德領先優勢已經縮小,成為一場激烈的競選;
若民進黨獲勝,北京可能採更挑釁性的行動,國民黨勝可能緩解緊張局勢,但不意味北京會停止在亞洲其他地區的侵略性軍事活動
◆
First
Post (2023-12-22):
日本表示,中囯即將入侵台灣,並正準備應對後果
(invasion of Taiwan by China is imminent
)
◆
Vtcng, 2023-12-25:
Taiwan Plus街訪民眾 (甲)除了台北,其他城市交通不那麼便利,觀光就無法提升
(乙) 希重視老年人福利(丙)最重視經濟與 政局安定,大家才有好的生活,不要像烏克蘭
中東那樣民不聊生 (丁) 在乎下一代家庭政策教育走向
(戊)
司法需要改進
◆
SCMP, 2023-12-25:隨著共軍加大對台灣的壓力,台灣總統大選面臨戰爭風險,台灣國防部聲稱,北京增加了對台灣附近的入侵,《環球時報》猛烈抨擊華盛頓為遏制中国而挑起類烏克蘭代理人戰爭◆
Financial Times, 2023-12-24:
隨著大選逼近,世界上最大的地緣政治熱點之一的民眾情緒高漲,20-29歲僅佔選民的16.2%,但他們可能會在不可預測的大選中扭轉局面。受訪的年輕人清楚地揭示了對政治的幻想破滅以及該如何與中国打交道的困惑
◆ 日本Japan
Times, 2023-12-25:
隨著海上和空中危險的近距離接觸不斷增加,人們越來越擔心誤判可能引發衝突,特別是在華盛頓和北京在地緣戰略競爭加劇的情況下對台灣問題採取更強硬的立場。◆
SCMP, 2023-12-24:
約有120萬台灣人生活在大陸,80%準備回台投票,他們是國民黨的堅定支持者,但一些年輕人認為兩大黨貪腐,而將目光投向柯P,北京將這次選舉描述為戰爭與和平之間的選擇,如果兩岸關係惡化,ECFA暫停,將面臨高稅賦
◆
Politico, 2023-12-23:
台灣大選是競爭最激烈、影響最深遠的投票之一:對美中戰略利益都至關重要,戰爭災難甚至可能超過俄烏戰的衝擊,民進黨議員認為,執政八年了,任何事都可能改變,民進黨支持者對台灣的前景和高度威懾感到非常焦慮。「我們真的不想成為下一個烏克蘭」中国
入侵的可能性有多大的猜謎遊戲有助於解釋現在的緊張氣氛
◆
Crisis Group, 2023-12-22:
年輕且猶豫不決的許多選民,在民進黨統治八年後,對政治體制不再抱有幻想,準備迎接變革 ◆
FoxNews, 2023-12-23:
國民黨誓言如果贏得選舉將與中国重啟談判。但也表示,台灣民眾將決定他們的未來。◆
The Conversation, 2023-12-21:
年輕女性傾向於從經濟壓力解釋寧養寵物而非嬰兒。住房是一個嚴重的問題。三年來,台灣的死亡人數超過了出生人數,老年人數超過了年輕人,可供當兵的年輕人少了很多,候選人都認真看待出生率下降的問題,地緣政治缺乏安全感也影響結婚生子的決定
◆
澳洲ABC, 2023-12-23:
Macquarie University學者認為這很難說,如果讓海外選民購買折扣票,他們就會投票給更親北京的候選人;
不過,由於他們的生活和人脈都建立在大陸,他們對中國的看法會相對不同
◆
Barron's, 2023-12-22:
台灣大選可能導致新一輪經濟脫鉤,如果地緣政治風險小幅上升,在台美國企業和投資者將需要做出艱難的選擇
◆
Crisis Group, 2023-12-22:
大選除兩岸因素,其他問題包括就業、工資、住房和通貨膨脹,這對年輕和中產階級選民尤其重要。隨著台灣人口老化,社會福利和健康服務也成為突出話題。國民黨批評允許進口含有萊克多巴胺美國豬。反對派強調政府未能確保電力和消費品的穩定供應,以及在
COVID-19 高峰期延遲提供疫苗
◆
美國VOA, 2023-12-22:
受訪年輕人認為,這似乎又是一場以兩岸問題為主的選舉,沒有跡象表明低工資和難以承受的房價等長期存在的問題得到充分解決
◆
美國NBC
Universal, 2023-12-21: 習近平的統一
警告可能影響台灣大選
◆
英國SUN, 2023-12-20:
習近平當面警告拜登,中国將佔領台灣——不排除隨時全面入侵
◆
Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-12-20: 中國對賴的不信任遠遠超過蔡英文,幾乎肯定會以更大的軍事、經濟和政治壓力來迎接賴清德的勝利
◆
CT, 2023-12-22: 布魯金斯學會研討會上,胡佛研究所Kharis
Templeman表示,現在斷言賴清德贏定了為時過早,這將是一場非常接近的競爭,不能說大局已定
◆
美國Bloomberg, 2023-12-20:民調顯示,副總統賴清德領先,他希望加強與華盛頓的關係,這表明緊張局勢不會緩和;
史丹佛大學研究員Oriana Skylar
Mastro表示,如果開戰,「台灣200%將淪陷」;美國政府的評估是「台灣堅持不了多久」;
MIT首席科學家:
“台灣在衝突的頭幾天舉雙手投降,他不會感到震驚”
◆
美國Brookings
Institution, 2023-12-18:
中国確實對台灣構成了巨大的挑戰。民進黨稱需要加強威懾並改善與美國關係。國民黨試圖證明民進黨的對華政策過於魯莽,它可以最大限度地利用兩岸關係的好處,同時仍然保護台灣的利益。其他議題包括年輕人對部分恢復徵兵制不感到高興、及工作、能源、人口老化、生活品質
◆
美國Bloomberg, 2023-12-19:
台灣執政黨民調優勢減少;
美麗島民調: 賴35% 侯31.7
柯18.2; 聯合報:
賴侯打平31%, 柯21%
◆ Al Jazeera, 2023-12-19:
北京毫不掩飾地表示,正在對台灣選舉採取積極立場。「台灣貿易壁壘」的調查延長至1月12日,即選舉前一天
◆
China Daily, 2023-12-19:
中国
譴責民進黨調查鄰里長大陸訪遊,打壓行為造成了令人不寒而慄的氣氛
◆
美國CNN, 2023-12-16:
台灣國安官員表示:北京似乎正在練習利用假訊息作為戰爭的藉口
◆
美國NPR, 2023-12-16: 核能成為競選主要議題,選民擔心中国的簡單封鎖可能會擾亂島上的能源安全,該島約
97% 的能源依賴進口
◆
英國Telegraph, 2023-12-16:
deepfake介選...有假訊息指責台灣高官將孩子送到美國,以避免日後被徵召入伍作戰
◆
美國NBC, 2023-12-15
msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/eye-on-taiwan-s-upcoming-pivotal-presidential-election-200248389745:
北京正在密切關注大選結果能否接受;
侯友宜: 第一是自己要有堅強的實力,第二個是要跟對方溝通談判...台美關係將不段深化;
趙少康:
獨立對北京有危險,他們不會容忍,至於統一我認為他們還可以等;
柯文哲:
從美國角度,它允許台灣跟中國的交往有一個範圍,同樣的,從中國角度,允許台灣跟美國運作的範圍也一個限制,我們得從兩個範圍中找到一個平衡點,
妳講得沒錯,
這相當困難,這也是台灣總統最困難的工作,要在兩國間取得一個平衡,還要維持自主性
(NBC沒有訪問賴蕭)
◆
日本NHK, 2023-12-15:
兩岸關係是大選的核心關鍵(central focus)
◆
美國VOA, 2023-12-15:
越多40歲以下的年輕候選人脫穎而出;效果之一是鼓勵更多年輕人出來投票。年輕選民有可能在選舉中支持年輕政客,因為直覺上,年輕選民可能認為他們更相似;
在以往的總統選舉中,年輕人的投票率一直低於其他年齡層。
◆
澳洲Australian
Institue of
International Affairs, 2023-12-15:
目前,北京似乎展現了較不好鬥的一面,希望台灣人民投票給北京認為更有利的候選人。
但與此同時,中国的不作為可能會被大陸與國外一些人視為軟弱或沉默 ◆
US News, 2023-12-14:
中国認定台灣設置貿易壁壘的行為違反了WTO規則以及2010年與台灣簽署的貿易協定,壁壘對中国企業產生了「負面影響」,台北籲北京停止其「政治行動」,「如果中方有誠意,我們隨時可以談」◆
英國Reuters, 2023-12-14:
隨著競選活動的升溫,台灣的一些人希望彌合裂痕,而不是進一步擴大分歧
◆
WION, 2023-12-14:
民調顯示對華關係存在分歧
◆
英國Economist, 2023-12-13:
儘管台灣是美國的關鍵安全利益,但它不該再這樣說。因為這會激怒中国,美國應該說,由台灣和中國大陸人民決定他們的未來。蕭美琴答:台灣主要是台灣民眾的安全利益。但台灣也是世界的安全利益
◆
英國Reuters, 2023-12-13:解放軍接近台灣海岸,在大選前“恐嚇”選民;
消息人士稱,商業拖船進入了南部領海,距離海岸12海浬,表示隨時對台灣採取行動。
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美國The Hill, 2023-12-12:
如果民進黨在總統大選獲勝,北京很可能會援引2005年的《反分裂國家法》◆
美國Foreign Affairs, 2023-12-12:
由於美國因歐洲和中東的重大戰事而分心,北京可能看到一個在西方做出反應之前發動軍事行動統一的機會
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英國Financial
Times, 2023-12-13:
科技業與其他經濟領域之間的投資和收入差距日益擴大。國家必須解決電力、水、土地、工人和高素質專業人士就業的“五荒”,以解決搖擺選民對經濟的擔憂
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日本NHK, 2023-12-13: 國民黨(
30% 左右)縮小了與民進黨(30多%)的差距
local News
國內新聞:
台灣總統大選辯論 |
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◆ 中國時報 (2023-12-30) | 賴清德始終如一,把民進黨執政貪汙抹成別人的黑金,把敗行劣跡拗為政績,明明最可能引戰卻包裝成和平; 中國施壓五月天一事,合理推論《路透》不至於無中生有,而是國安單位造謠在先chinatimes.com/opinion/20231230003316-262101?chdtv |
◆ 中國時報 (2023-12-30) | 總統辯論中由於受到對手詰問,賴清德的偽裝遮掩不住,道出他的台獨本質 ; 賴清德以為如果要用《中華民國憲法》來決定兩岸問題,又是另一個層次問題。他目無憲法及增修條文 對於台灣屬於「主權獨立的國家」法理依據是什麼?他交代不清。還聲稱自己是3位候選人中最能維持和平的一個,這簡直是在說夢話,他難道不知道中共從政要到平民百姓幾乎眾口一聲,不容中國大陸主權與土地被分裂,為此不惜一戰。 chinatimes.com/opinion/20231230003474-262101?chdtv |
Int'l News
國際新聞:
◆
The Statesman, 2023-12-13:
如何處理「兩岸」關係毫無疑問地成為競選的關鍵議題◆
中東 AI
Mayadeen English, 2023-12-13:
中國國台辦發言人譴責美國干涉台灣總統選舉;
此前,美國AIT聲稱,中國是一系列針對台灣的網路攻擊的幕後黑手,試圖操縱選舉 ◆
Diplomat, 2023-12-11:無論誰台灣大選獲勝,預期美國政策將保持連續性;
但川普或強烈「美國優先」傾向者當選美國總統,美國對台灣的持續支持和對中強硬態度將面臨拐點
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The Conversation, 2023-12-11:
當台灣人正在關心戰爭時,民調發現
超過 80%
的民眾認為中国的威脅正在惡化——和平與穩定的前景正在影響台灣的國際商業和投資前景。與民進黨相反,國民黨認為,經濟與中国「脫鉤」不那麼容易。民眾黨關注生活、低薪和高房價等國內問題;
民進黨主張兩岸關係明確,國民黨主張模糊和靈活的立場
◆
CNBC TV , 2023-12-11:
民調預測,民進黨和國民黨將展開激烈角逐,民眾黨將成為第三方勢力 ◆
The
Guardian , 2023-12-9:
台灣選民在決定是否讓支持獨立的民進黨繼續執政時,面臨戰爭與和平的選擇;
中共領導人考慮美國大選及歐洲和中東戰爭,是否會冒風險爭取歷史性的、光彩奪目的「統一」勝利?
大多數西方分析師說「不會」。但當年他們也這麼預測烏克蘭之戰
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Daily Mail , 2023-12-10:
中国對台施加經濟等「持續不斷的壓力」是非常不祥的,特別是在一月份“關鍵”選舉之前
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SCMP, 2023-12-10:
攜帶通訊衛星的火箭在台灣上空大氣層中飛行,進一步加劇了台灣的焦慮。一些立
委聲稱,這是試圖對大選的警告; 衛星意味著我們所有的軍事行動都可能受到解放軍的監視
◆美國
Foreign Policy,
2023-12-8:
柯P提議將金門變成和平試驗區。加拿大研究人員採訪的農村居民認為,民進黨已經忘了他們,而城市居民則抱怨通貨膨脹和缺乏經濟房,並指工資停滯 ◆美國
Foreign Policy
research Institute, 2023-12-8: 藍白內部的混亂不一定保證賴清德當選,最新民調顯示賴僅勉強領先;
藍白聲稱傾向於與美國建立牢固的關係,但都傾向於與北京建立更溫暖的關係,這可能預示在某種程度上接受統一,將對美國和日本的安全利益產生不利影響 ◆
美國
Bloomberg, 2023-12-7:
台灣11月通膨達2.9%, 民進黨面臨選舉風險
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英國
Reuters, 2023-12-5: 北京視為分離主義分子的賴清德有望獲勝。
台灣外交部拒絕回答有關是否與日本討論人道緊急情況(民眾逃亡),日本海上保安廳表示:“可能有數百艘船隻,數量太多,即使中國的封鎖也無法阻止”。美國專家:“日本一直不願意讓大量船隻入境"
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美國
WSWS.org, 2023-12-7:
日本前將領接受《日經亞洲》採訪時宣稱,如果兩岸軍事衝突,日本將扮演與波蘭在俄烏戰中類似的角色
◆
英國 The Guardian
, 2023-12-6: 台灣的選舉一直是colourful,且常常是混亂的,
今年又增加三腳督戲碼; 目前賴僅獲得
35% 左右的選票,
年輕人厭倦了民進黨,但對國民黨並不熱衷。選民在內政和外交面臨“變化VS.
繼續”的選擇
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日本 Nikkei Asia
, 2023-12-6:
台灣總統選舉將是該島歷史上的關鍵時刻,選舉的結果可能鞏固台灣一直不穩定的主權,
陷入兩岸衝突,或走入與中國合併的軌道 ◆
美國
New York Times, news briefing, 2023-12-5:
大選臨近,焦點是誰能最好地處理台灣與中国不穩定的關係。但尤其是20多~30多歲的選民厭倦了地緣政治,渴望更加關注如住房成本、收入增長緩慢和職業前景等。年輕人可能是決定大選的關鍵因素
◆
美國
New York Times, 2023-12-4:
賴清德對侯友宜的領先優勢已經縮小,獲得對民進黨處理生計問題不滿的年輕人(20 至 34 歲佔人口1/5)支持的柯文哲可發揮決定性作用,大選可能會在最後幾週發生變化
◆
TaiwanInsight.org, 2023-12-4:
國民黨在台灣立法院的前景似乎要光明得多——即使它未能獲得絕對多數 ◆
Radio Free Asia, 2023-12-3:
柯文哲在富裕白領中的支持率最高,但在藍領,他也有與賴類似的吸引力。柯P以其尖酸刻薄、異想天開、看似無厘頭的精闢言論吸引了各階層,尤其是年輕人。批評者指他有獨裁傾向、皇帝情結、反复無常...
“他的偶像包括毛澤東和雍正"..."深深植根於父權思想和計票計劃"。柯的祖父死於228,他也遭受了民進黨的“迫害”☉ 全文
◆◆
民進黨: 大陸目前不犯台 |
美國軍方及民眾: 中国可能入侵台灣 |
◆
聯合報 (2023-12-3):
賴清德力圖證明他當總統戰爭風險低,蔡英文卻顧左右而言他,不敢背書。 ◆ 蔡英文答覆New York Times,只說現在不是大陸犯台時機;對紐約時報追問民進黨繼續執政會不會引發未來幾年中共的軍事侵擾,卻完全規避,只答非所問地說,中共介選不會成功 udn.com/news/story/7338/7614621?from=udn_ch2_menu_v2_main_cate |
◆
FoxNews (2023-12-3):
美國參謀首長聯席會議主席表示「我們都應該」擔心中国可能入侵台灣;
73% 的美國人表示有些擔心入侵台灣的可能性 ◆ The Hill, 2023-11-30: 以哈戰爭爆發後,美國人現在希望將軍力集中在中東而不是東亞,這引發了對東亞(台海日韓)更廣泛衝突的擔憂; 就整體軍事能力而言,美國不再擁有絕對的優勢,但美國人民顯然還沒有內化這一點 |
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☉ 本網頁資料來源
◆
Foreign Affairs, 2023-11-30:
為了阻止戰爭,台灣必須讓北京領導人相信和平統一仍然是可能的
◆
Telegraph (UK), 2023-12-2:
台灣即將投票反對中国。戰爭即將來臨,與中国做生意的時代結束了
◆
WSWS.org, 2023-11-29:
兩岸在大選佔據重要地位,但低經濟成長率、失業率上升和社會困境等國內問題也有顯著影響。台灣在2023年第一季陷入衰退,GDP年減3.02%。預計今年經濟僅成長1.61%。房地產投機正在加劇日益嚴重的住房危機。
20 至 24 歲青年失業率超過 11%
◆
Diplomat, 2023-12-1:
趙少康以縮短兵
役期作為接受副總統候選人的條件,據報導,國民黨接受了 ◆
Global Finance
Magazine, 2023-11-30:
總統大選將台灣置於十字路口,選舉結果的影響可能遠遠超出該島的範圍
◆
Washington Post, 2023-11-28:
北京稱這場大選是“戰爭與和平之間的選擇”,併升級了圍繞台灣四周的
威嚇行動,使中国在台海的軍事激進達到了幾十年來從未有過的嚴重程度 ◆
Washington Post, 2023-11-28:
台灣不是資產已成為美國的負債,政策應小心避免支持賴清德,現在正是我們可以帶著豪邁和遠見的色彩逐步退出台灣的好時機
◆
WSWS, 2023-11-29:
毫無疑問,如果賴清德當選,台海緊張局勢將進一步惡化 ◆
Radio Free Asia, 2023-11-28:
民進黨「綠營」的基
本盤正在縮小,但「藍營」不太可能從中受益。據預測:“柯文哲很可能吸收‘淺藍’和‘淺綠’選民 ◆
Washington Post, 2023-11-28:
柯P的言論直白到近乎攻擊性,其非典型風格贏得了年輕選民的喜愛,他們一樣蔑視台灣傳統的政治分歧。但目前尚不清楚中国是否願與柯進行對話
◆
SCMP, 2023-11-29:
侯支持率上升的原因是多方面的,侯康配鞏固了基
本盤。韓國瑜列
不分區首位也令他們高興,藍白協商時侯非常謙虛有禮,
民眾可以感受他盡力組建聯盟,柯繼續下滑,可能是財團搭檔所致 ◆
NBC, 2023-11-27:
大選結果可能在一定程度上影響緊張的中美關係,並更廣泛地影響亞太安全...侯週六重申警告,投票給民進黨很可能導致戰爭
◆
Reuters, 2023-11-27:
中国指賴、蕭在台灣大選
中歪曲事實、淡化『台獨』分裂活動的危害和危險,欺騙選民。
國民黨指投票給
賴清德就是投票給戰爭
◆
Bloomberg, 2023-11-26:
民進黨史無前例的連續執政絕非已成定局。人們對執政黨的不滿與日俱增,並渴望變革,尤其是年輕選民。◆ Washington
Post,
2023-11-24: 不能保證民進黨在總統大選中獲勝。因在蔡英文擔任總統期間,民眾對執政黨的不滿情緒不斷高漲,蔡英文受到腐敗醜聞以及台灣企業對失去與中國大陸的貿易的抱怨的打擊 ◆
GZero Media, 2023-11-26:
分析人士一致認為,賴清德的勝利可能會進一步惡化兩岸敵對的關係,導致更大的軍事升級和經濟脅迫
☉ 全文
◆ 美國VOA News, 2023-11-24 |