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intlHumanRights.com,  https://Courageworld.ch  are sites of same group

 

 

 


   No. 1  "comment Taiwan" on Mocrosoft Bing, 2024-12-7, 2024-10-10, 2024-9-11, 2024-8-31, 2024-8-8, 2024- 7-24, 2024-5-1, 2024-4-19, 2024-2-28, 2024-1-23, 2023-11-11, 2023-11-1, 2023-10-10, 2023-9-18, 2023-9-11, 2023-8-22, 2023-8-8, 2023-7-4, 2023-6-28, 2023-6-16, 2023-5-31, 2023-5-1, 2023-4-30, 2023-3-31, 2023-3-23, 2023-2-28, 2023-2-6, 2023-1-21, 2023-1-14, 2023-1-1, 2022-12-12, 2022-10-10, 2022-9-20,  2022-9-11, 2022-9-5, 2022-8-23, 2022-8-14, 2022-8-6, 2022-7-29, 2022-7-18, 2022-7-7, 2022-7-1, 2022-6-24, 2022-6-18, 2022-6-10, 2022-6-8, 2022-5-30, 2022-5-16, 2022-5-6

 

 

                  

   No. 1  "comment Taiwan" on ecosia (Berlin Germany), 2024-12-7, 2024-10-10, 2024-9-12, 2024-8-31, 2024-8-8, 2024-8-2, 2024-7-24, 2024-5-1, 2024-4-19, 2024-2-28, 2024-1-23, 2023-11-11, 2023-11-1, 2023-10-10, 2023-9-11, 2023-8-22, 2023-8-8, 2023-7-4, 2023-6-16, 2023-5-31, 2023-5-1, 2023-4-30, 2023-3-23, 2023-2-28, 2023-2-6, 2023-1-21, 2023-1-1, 2022-12-12, 2022-10-10, 2022-9-20, 2022-9-11,  2022-8-23, 2022-8-14,  2022-8-7, 2022-7-29, 2022-7-18, 2022-7-7, 2022-7-1, 2022-6-25, 2022-6-18, 2022-6-10, 2022-6-7, 2022-5-23, 2022-5-16, 2022-5-7, 2022-4-26, 2022-4-10, 2022-4-8, 2022-4-3, 2022-3-29, 2022-3-22, 2022-3-17, 2022-3-12, 2022-3-9, 2022-3-6, 2022-2-28, 2022-2-19, 2022-2-11, 2022-2-8, 2021-11-11, 2021-10-23, 2021-10-8, 2021-10-1, 2021-9-27, 2021-9-19, 2021-9-7, 2021-8-22, 2021-8-5, 2021-6-27, 2021-6-1, 2021-5-9, 2021-5-1, 2021-4-14, 3-23-2021, 3-8-2021, 2-20-2021, 1-19-2021, 10-1-2020;   pic. left: This websites-group was ranked No.1 by keyword "Taiwan comments"  on Ecosia of Germany, 2023-8-22, 2023-2-28, 2023-1-21, 2022-12-12, 2022-5-23, 2022-5-7, 2022-4-26, 2022-4-10, 2022-4-8, 2022-4-3, 2022-3-29, 2022-3-20, 2022-3-12, 2022-3-9, 2022-3-4, 2022-2-28, 2022-2-19,

 2022-2-14, 2022-2-11, 2022-2-8, 2022-1-30, 2022-1-26

 

 

 

    
   No. 1  "comment Taiwan" on Yahoo (Taiwan), 2024-12-7, 2024-10-10, 2024-8-31, 2024-8-8, 2024-8-2, 2024-7-24, 2024-5-1, 2024-4-19, 2024-2-28, 2024-1-23, 2024-1-1, 2023-11-11, 2023-11-1, 2023-10-10,  2023-9-11,2023-8-22, 2023-8-8, 2023-7-4, 2023-6-28, 2023-6-16, 2023-5-31, 2023-5-1, 2023-4-30, 2023-3-31, 2023-3-23, 2023-2-28, 2023-2-6, 2023-1-21, 2023-1-1, 2022-12-12, 2022-10-10, 2022-9-20, 2022-9-11, 2022-9-4, 2022-8-22, 2022-8-14, 2022-8-7, 2022-7-29, 2022-7-18, 2022-7-7, 2022-7-1, 2022-6-25, 2022-6-18, 2022-6-9    pic.  : No.1 "comment Taiwan" (Chinese version) on Yahoo Taiwan , 2024-4-19, 2024-1-1, 2023-8-8, 2023-4-30, 2023-3-23, 2023-2-20, 2023-1-21, 2023-1-1, 2022-12-6, 2022-10-10, 2022-9-20  

 

 


 
No. 1  "comment Taiwan" on DuckDuckGo , 2024-12-7, 2024-8-31, 2024-8-8, 2024-8-2, 2024-7-24, 2023-6-16, 2023-5-1, 2023-1-21, 2022-5-16, 2022-4-26, 2022-4-10, 2022-4-8, 2022-4-3, 2022-3-23, 2022-3-20, 2022-3-12, 2022-3-9, 2022-3-6, 2022-2-28, 2022-2-14, 2022-2-8, 2021-11-11, 2021-10-8, 2021-10-1, 2021-9-27, 2021-9-19, 2021-9-7, 2021-8-22, 2021-8-5, 2021-6-27 No. 2  "comment Taiwan" on DuckDuckGo , 2022-9-11  

 

 


 
 pic.:  The web-sites group ranks No.1 "comment Taiwan" on Yandex of Russia , 2024-12-7, 2024-10-10, 2024-8-31, 2024-8-8, 2024-7-24, 2024-4-19, 2024-2-28, 2024-1-23, 2024-1-1, 2023-11-11, 2023-11-1, 2023-10-10, 2023-9-11, 2023-8-22, 2023-8-8, 2023-7-4, 2023-6-28, 2023-6-16, 2023-5-31, 2023-5-1, 2023-4-30, 2023-3-31, 2023-2-28, 2023-2-6, 2023-1-21, 2023-1-1, 2022-12-12, 2022-10-13, 2022-9-23, 2022-9-12, 2022-9-5,
2022-8-20, 2022-8-13,  2022-8-7, 2022-7-18, 2022-7-7, 2022-7-1, 2022-6-25, 2022-6-10, 2022-6-7, 2022-6-1, 2022-5-23, 2022-4-16, 2022-3-20, 2022-3-4, 2022-2-1, 2022-1-30, 2022-1-25, 2022-1-11, 2022-1-1, 2021-11-21, 2021-10-23, 2021-10-20, 2021-10-3, 2021-6-27, 8-13-2020, 8-5-2020, 6-12-2020 5-21-2020, 2-28-2020, 1-17-2020, 1-11-2020, 12-18-2019,  12-1-2019, 11-26-2019, 11-7-2019; No.3 at 2023-3-23

 

 

 

 ★★
 pic.: No. 1 "comment Taiwan" on US Yahoo, 2024-8-31, 2024-8-8, 2024-8-2, 2024-7-24, 2024-5-1, 2024-4-19, 2023-8-8, 2023-7-4, 2023-6-28, 2023-6-16, 2023-5-31, 2023-5-1, 2023-4-30, 2023-3-31, 2023-3-23, 2023-2-28, 2023-2-6, 2023-1-21, 2023-1-14, Top or No. 1 "comment Taiwan" on US Yahoo, 2022-12-12, 2022-10-10, 2022-9-11, 2022-9-5, 2022-8-13, 2022-8-7, 2022-6-25, 2022-5-25

 

 

    

 pic.: No.1 "comment Taiwan" on MetaGER.de of Germany, 2024-8-31, 2024-8-8, 2024-8-2, 2024-7-24, 2024-5-1, 2024-4-19, 2024-2-28, 2023-11-1, 2023-9-11, 2023-8-22, 2023-8-8, 2023-7-4  

 

 

 

pic. : No.1  "Taiwan comments"  on Microsoft Bing, 2024-8-8,  2024-7-24, 2023-11-1, 2023-9-11, 2023-8-22, 2023-8-8, 2023-6-16, 2023-2-28, 2023-2-6, 2023-1-21, This websites-group was ranked No.1 or 2 by keyword "Taiwan comments"  on Microsoft Bing, 2023-1-1, 2022-12-12, 2022-9-20, 2022-9-14, 2022-9-11, 2022-8-24, 2022-5-23, 2022-5-16, 2022-5-7, 2022-4-26, 2022-4-10, 2022-4-8, 2022-4-3, 2022-3-29, 2022-3-20, 2022-3-17, 2022-3-12, 2022-3-9, 2022-3-4, 2022-2-28, 2022-2-25, 2022-2-21, 2022-2-19, 2022-2-14, 2022-2-11, 2022-2-8, 2022-2-5, 2022-1-31, 2022-1-28, 2022-1-25, 2022-1-20, 2022-1-15, 2022-1-12

 

 

 


Latest news 
  full text

Taiwan's pres. Lai flies to US, angering China

◆  New York Times,   2024-12-10 Taiwan says China has deployed largest fleet of ships in decades, which could block American allies in the region  from coming to Taiwan's defense.  Speculation had been growing for days that China would launch war games in retaliation for visits made by Lai Ching-te to Hawaii and Guam last week; The surge in Chinese ships could also be a signal to the incoming Trump administration, which has yet to indicate how it will deal with Taiwan.
◆  Fox News,   2024-12-10 After Taiwanese president visits Hawaii and Guam, Chinese military makes massive deployment around Taiwan to send 'very simple' message: "The Taiwan Strait is ours"; Taiwan defense officials are raising concerns ..., saying the build-up could eventually lead to war as tensions continue to rise in the area.
◆   Wall Street Journal,   2024-12-2 Trump has publicly called for Taiwan to spend more to defend itself and has accused Taiwan's world-class chip makers of stealing American jobs.  In a closed-door speech delivered in English, Lai appeared to address some of those criticisms, outlining plans to bolster the country's self-defense. Lai promised deepening cooperation with the U.S. in the semiconductor industry.
◆   AP,  Washington Post, 2024-12-4 Taiwanese President Lai reportedly has phone talks from Guam with US Congress leaders; their talks seemed designed to underscore the bipartisan support for Taiwan in the U.S. Congress.
◆  New York Times,   2024-11-30 Taiwan's government tries to fathom what changes President-elect Donald J. Trump will bring to U.S. dealings with TaiwanIn uncertain times, Taiwan needs every edge of international advantage that it can get. Taiwanese leaders have used their brief stops to promote stronger ties with the United States; This time, Mr. Lai will not set foot in the continental United States, reducing opportunities for high-profile meetings.
◆  Wall Street Journal,   2024-12-1 Taiwan's President begins Hawaii stopover and sends a firm but conciliatory message to both China and the incoming Trump administration: While Taipei doesn't seek a war with Beijing, it is counting on U.S. support to deter any aggression from its larger neighbor.  "Transits" are part of careful arrangements made between Washington and Taipei to allow its leaders to engage with each other on American soil after the two severed formal diplomatic ties in 1979.
◆  CNN,   2024-11-30 Chinese government labeled Lai's visit as "a provocative act", and could respond by staging a fresh round of military drills near the island democracy.  China hopes to create an incident during the transition period in the United States to create pressure on the incoming Trump team by drawing a red line.
◆  AFP (France),   2024-11-30 President Lai Ching-te's trip has ignited fiery threats from Beijing. Bonnie GlaserLai's tour of the Pacific was an opportunity for him "to show those countries and the world that Taiwan matters".  China always wants to leave the impression that Taiwan is isolated and it is dependent on the PRC.
◆  Deutsche Welle (Germany),   2024-11-30  China has slammed the trip as a step toward independence from Beijing, and described Lai's planned stopover in the US territory of Guam as "separatist actions."

 

about China's ability to invade Taiwan

◆   Economist, 2024-12-5 American military officials have long worried about a “window of vulnerability” before new weapons enter into service in the 2030s.  But corruption in the PLA is changing the calculations of analysts; China's economic woes and social discontent mean that Mr Xi is turning inward.

The views (the period of greatest danger has probably been pushed out for several years) are not universally shared, in or out of government.  “Xi has his foot firmly on the accelerator and a full tank of gas".

◆   Breaking Defense,   2024-12-6 The head of the Defense Intelligence Agency: China did appear to be on track to meet Xi's 2027 preparedness goal.
House intel's Himes: You could implement a blockade. You know, what? If you invade Taiwan, what happens? A. You may lose. B. You may reduce the place to smoking rubble, what have you really achieved economically?
◆  Newsweek,   2024-11-20 U.S. Pacific Commander Samuel Paparo:  a cross-strait invasion executed by the Chinese military would be "exceedingly difficult" given the advantages of the U.S. and allies.
◆  Washington Examiner,   2024-12-4 Chinese leaders have said they want their military to be prepared to invade Taiwan by 2027, though U.S. defense leaders have said the date does not guarantee a decision to carry out such an operation has been made. 
War with China would exhaust munition stockpiles "very rapidly",
national security adviser J. Sullivan acknowledged that China has "the single biggest advantage"
, "God forbid we end up in a full-scale war with the PRC" .

 

 ◆ Brookings, 2024-11-22: To many in Beijing, Taiwan's leaders are testing the boundaries of China's tolerance by incrementally advancing efforts to permanently separate Taiwan from China. American officials generally do not judge that Taiwan President Lai Ching-te has taken steps to undermine peace and stability.   ◆ Daily Mail (UK) , 2024-11-23:  In a war simulation by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)showed devastating costs for all involved. The grim war simulations come at a time of political upheaval, with Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te taking a tougher line with China.

 

Taiwan Prepares for Trump's Return.

◆   Wall Street Journal 2024-11-18 Some in Taiwan say its survival as a self-ruled democracy is at stake, that it can't afford to spend what Trump demands on defense and that it would wither in the crossfire of a U.S.-China trade war.
 Taiwan's military spending is currently at 2.45% of GDP—a lower share than Singapore's 2.8% and South Korea's 2.7%;  In Washington, the percent of GDP is really seen as a proxy for your seriousness
.
◆   New York Times 2024-11-24 Taiwan is ready to defend democracy. Is Trump?  Maybe he will strike some sort of bargain with Taiwan. But whatever Taiwan can offer him, Beijing can easily top.  More and more, there are those in Taiwan who say we are an “abandoned chess piece,” no longer valued by the United States.  China amplifies these fears...
◆   New York Times 2024-11-6 Some diplomats in Asia expect China to intensify pressure on Taiwan, if not invade the self-governing island it claims as its territory; and China may calculate that Mr. Trump would not go to war for a democracy that he has accused of “stealing” the microchip industry from the United States.  “With Donald Trump, there are large amounts of uncertainty,” said Lev Nachman, a political scientist, “And it's a matter of uncertainty that comes with great risk for Taiwan.”
◆   Washington Post 2024-11-6 Trump's statements this year that raise doubt about his willingness to come to the island democracy's defense and his misleading assertion that Taipei needs to pay the US for defense. Such rhetoric could “fan the flames of skepticism” about American intent at a time when the Taiwanese are “directly threatened by CCP disinformation aimed at undermining U.S. credibility”
◆   New York Times 2024-11-10 Taiwan's leading chip makers may face demands from the Trump administration to locate more production in the United StatesTaiwan has already been raising its military spending, partly under pressure from Washington. But Mr. Trump has said that Taiwan should raise military spending to 10 percent of its gross domestic product (from about 2.6 percent).  Sharply increasing military spending could be politically difficult for Taiwan's presidentBeijing, for its part, appears poised to exploit any signs of discord between Washington and Taipei.
◆   Fox News 2024-11-10 Trump's public comments might suggest that he would not be willing to put boots on the ground to face another global superpower in defense of a tiny island democracy (Taiwan).   there is hope among restraint groups that Trump will be focused on economic warfare with China – rather than military.   "We don't have that alliance with Taiwan, ... the Taiwan issue is a powder keg — it's exceedingly dangerous. "
◆   New York Times 2024-11-6 news briefing Many believe Trump's foreign policy changes could have a greater impact than anything since the start of the Cold War.

Trump could decide to do the true “America First” thing and withdraw completely, and basically say,  "defending Taiwan is not in our interest.”

◆   Bloomberg 2024-11-5 Taiwan's Economic Affairs Minister acknowledged that Trump could introduce measures that might prove harmful for Taiwan's semiconductor industry. But the impact will not be as severe as some anticipate.
◆  Reuters,  2024-11-6 From Taiwan to trade, China braces for more rivalry as close US presidential race endsTrump might try to use the Taiwan issue as a bargaining chip to gain leverage in other areas, such as offering to restrain Taiwan's provocative actions in exchange for Beijing's compromise on trade.

 

Taiwan has a Trump problem

  The Atlantics, 2024-10-25 The shortcomings of Taiwan's military lend some validity to Trump's complaint that America's allies don't pay enough for their own defense and dump too much of the responsibility onto the United States—a burden that a second Trump administration might not be committed to bear.
  New York Times, 2024-10-26 Mr. Trump criticized Taiwan, saying that “they stole our chip business”,“They want us to protect, ... They don't pay us money for the protection... The mob makes you pay money, right?”America's heavy reliance on Taiwan's semiconductors has been a growing source of concern among U.S. officials, given China's ongoing threats to invade the self-governing island.

 

 Taiwan's Lai Ching-te and China's Xi JinPing congratulate Trump

◆ The Hill, 2024-11-6 Taiwan president congratulates Trump on victoryWilliam Lai Ching-te  posted on the social platform X. “I'm confident that the longstanding Taiwan-US partnership, built on shared values & interests, will continue to serve as a cornerstone for regional stability & lead to greater prosperity for us all.”
Trump has made several incendiary comments about Taiwan, saying it should have to pay the U.S. to defend the nation against China and that Taipei stole the United States's ability to make semiconductors. He has also called Chinese President Xi Jinping “brilliant.”
CNA, 2024-11-6 Robert O'Brien expresses thanks
Bloomberg, 2024-11-6 Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te is considering trying to make a call to Donald Trump after his US election victory,  in a move that would likely be seen by Beijing as a sign of Taiwan seeking to assert independence. 
Lai has no plan to arrange a congratulatory call with Trump, the Presidential Office said in a statement ( 到目前為止沒有規畫致電表達祝賀之意)
 央視(CCTV), Dagens (UK), 2024-11-7 Xi Jinping Congratulates Trump, Pushes for Peaceful U.S.-China Future. Chinese President Xi Jinping personally called Donald Trump to congratulate him on his election victory, according to China's Foreign Ministry.  "History has shown that China and the United States benefit from cooperation and lose from confrontation. Stable, healthy and stable Sino-American relations meet the common interests of both countries and the expectations of the international community," Xi stated, as reported by Ukrinform's own correspondent.He expressed optimism that both nations would continue to uphold principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and mutually beneficial cooperation.  "We look forward to further strengthening dialogue and communication with Washington and to managing differences responsibly, finding ways to expand cooperation for the benefit of both countries and the world," Xi added


  NY Times, 2024-10-22: The frequency of the exercises suggests that China is stepping up its intimidation efforts: The Chinese military has held two such large-scale exercises since Mr. Lai took office in May, the same number that it held over the previous eight years.  Wall Street Journal, 2024-10-17: China practiced a military blockade of Taiwan that is an all too real future possibility.  Short of Taiwan's surrender, a blockade may be President Xi Jinping's preferred option. All underscores the urgent need to buttress deterrence against a blockade or invasion. This means more civil defense training and military spending in Taiwan, and faster U.S. weapons delivery...The next U.S. President could easily face a Taiwan crisis  Foreign Affairs, 2024-10-16: By almost universal agreement, the Taiwan Strait has emerged as the most combustible flash point in the world.  Some have called on the United States to make an unequivocal commitment to defend Taiwan. Others have focused on enhancing Taiwan's defenses. A much smaller number of analysts have advocated cutting a deal with Beijing in which Washington ends its commitment to defending Taiwan and the island is left to fend for itself.  Council on Foreign Relations, 2024-10-16: Taiwan and other U.S. partners will need to contend with an increasingly capable and aggressive China and rising isolationism and protectionism in the United States. Trump's foreign policy pronouncements reflect sentiments held by many in the United States.

 

China's response to a speech by President Lai Ching-te in Taiwan's national day

◆  New York Times, 2024-10-13 China began holding military drills in areas surrounding Taiwan,  a response to a speech by President Lai Ching-te of Taiwan, who said that China had “no right to represent” the island and China and Taiwan were “not subordinate to each other” .  China did not say when the exercises would conclude.
New York Times, 2024-10-16 David Sacks, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said PLA's activities are coming closer and closer to Taiwan shores.   China's military drills were aimed at demonstrating its potential to choke Taiwan's access to food and fuel and block the skies and waters from which the United States and its allies would presumably approach in coming to the island's defense.  The drills send the message that Taiwan remains so sensitive, so important and crucial for the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party”, said Bonnie Glaser.
◆  Reuters, 2024-10-12 China threatens Taiwan with more trade measures after denouncing president's speech

 

◆  The American Conservative , 2024-10-11: Although there is widespread agreement in Taiwan that avoiding war is desirable, there is no consensus on whether deterrence through militarization is the best path forward. Conscription, currently set at a year, is far from adequate in preparing Taiwan's youth for the type of civic and military readiness found in nations like Israel or South Korea. There is a prevalent assumption,  that America will unquestionably intervene in the event of an invasion. A comprehensive strategy must also aim at fostering political unity, morale, and military readiness in Taiwan ◆   United States Institute of Peace, 2024-10-9: Bloomberg Economics has estimated a war with Taiwan would cost equivalent to 10% of global GDP —  China's GDP would suffer a 16.7% blow compared to 40% for what would be a devastated Taiwanese economyWith a far bigger economy than Russia's, China would have more leverage than Moscow to resist U.S.-led efforts to isolate it after an attack on Taiwan.

 

◆  Chicago Council on Global Affairs , 2024-10-8: Should China invade, Americans support arming Taipei but oppose direct military intervention.A narrow majority of Americans (51%) say the United States should encourage Taiwan to maintain the status quo rather than move toward independence (36%) or unification (4%).
 

If China were to invade Taiwan, would you support or oppose the United States: (% support)

  2024 2023 2022
Using the US military to airlift food and medical supplies to Taiwan 74 78  
Imposing economic and diplomatic sanctions on china 72 75 76
Sending additional arms and military supplies to the Taiwanese government 59 62 65
SAending US troops to Taiwan to help the Taiwanese gov. defend itself against China 36 39 40
globalaffairs.org/research/public-opinion-survey/taiwan-americans-favor-status-quo

 

 

China's "coercion short of violence" strategy

◆  Associated Press, 2024-10-5 Beijing could wage an economic and cyber war to force a surrender from Taiwan without direct use of military power, the Foundation for Defense of Democracies said in the report.  the U.S. government has yet to formulate a plan to respond to non-military tactics, giving Beijing flexibility in working to undermine Taiwan without triggering an outright response from Washington...
◆  Foreign Policy, 2024-10-4 Taiwan's greatest vulnerabilities extend beyond its military    ──     financial, cybersecurity, and energy risks that China could exploit.
◆  Foundation of Defense of Democracies, 2024-10-4 the “most likely” scenario: Sometime in the next decade, China will combine economic coercion, malicious cyber activity, and limited military moves short of kinetic attacks to break Taiwan's societal and/or economic resilience and force a major adjustment in its policy toward unification. fdd.org/analysis/2024/10/04/targeting-taiwan/
◆  Brookings, 2024-10-3 China's leaders appear determined to show directional progress toward their goal of asserting control over Taiwan. Beijing is pursuing two parallel paths, significant military build-up and "coercion without violence" to compel the people of Taiwan to accept some form of union with the People's Republic of China as a least bad option for Taiwan's future. Harris said in 2022 that the United States would “support Taiwan's self-defense, consistent with our longstanding policy.”. Trump's disdain for alliances and security partnerships, though, negatively impacted Taiwan by calling into question the reliability of America's security commitments. The common thread among these utterances is Trump (team) suggestion that Taiwan is too small and far away for the United States to feel obliged to defend.
◆  American Enterprise Institute , 2024-5-3 From Coercion to Capitulation: How China Can Take Taiwan Without a War / (1) uses economic carrots and sticks, information operations, and military escalation to convince the US and Taiwan that their cooperation directly precipitates further escalation (2) Economic warfare, cyberwarfare, sabotage, rigorous (and pseudo-legal) inspections of ships carrying goods to Taiwan, air and sea closures, electronic warfare, and propaganda (3) break the Taiwanese public's will to resist by intimidating supporters of resistance, sowing doubt and fear ...  (4) information campaigns aim to decrease the US public's and political leadership's willingness to support Taiwan.   aei.org/research-products/report/from-coercion-to-capitulation-how-china-can-take-taiwan-without-a-war/

 

◆  Economist, 2024-10-3: China is using an "anaconda strategy" to squeeze Taiwan.  "They are ready to blockade Taiwan at any time they want", Taiwan's navy commander warns. The number of PLA air incursions across the median line, has jumped more than five-fold, from January to August. The number of PLA ships operating around Taiwan has steadily risen, too, doubling... ◆  Brookings, 2024-10-3: China's leaders appear determined to show directional progress toward their goal of asserting control over Taiwan. Beijing is pursuing two parallel paths, significant military build-up and "coercion without violence" to compel the people of Taiwan to accept some form of union with the People’s Republic of China as a least bad option for Taiwan's future. ◆  Council on Foreign Relations, 2024-9-25:  today China's outmatches Taiwan's both in size and quality,  U.S. defense officials say it does not yet have the ability to carry out a successful amphibious assault on the island amid a U.S. military intervention on Taiwan's behalf. ◆  New York Times, 2024-9-25: Taiwan and U.S. Work to Counter China's Drone Dominance , a move that would also help blunt any threats posed to the island by China. “Security and intellectual property risks are real but manageable with the right safeguards”◆  Wall Street Journal, 2024-9-21: Supply bottlenecks had delayed delivery of weapon systems to Taiwan valued at more than $20 billion. Unlike Ukraine or Israel, Taiwan's geography as an island makes resupplying its military a bigger challenge. Military experts in the West are particularly concerned that China could try to force Taiwan to capitulate with a blockade.Taiwan needs to be as independent as possible to be able to replenish its weapon systems.
 Financial Times, 2024-9-19: The scale of China's military activity is getting larger and larger, and so it is harder to discern when they might be shifting from training to a large exercise, and from an exercise to war. military moves below the threshold of war poses challenge to Taiwan's defences.ft.com/content/3402d159-418c-4485-abb4-7e2155288d61     Brookings, 2024-9-16:What Taiwan most fears—an amphibious invasion—is currently  beyond the PLA's reach.Beijing has developed two different means—military and coercive—to achieve its political objective of unification Politico, 2024-9-11: Nearly three in four Americans are concerned about a potential invasion of Taiwan, according to the latest Reagan National Defense Survey.  And, Washington has fixated on a potential 2027 invasion scenario. But, China's Strategy To Annex Taiwan Is More About Cyber Power Than Firepower  full text

 

U.S. SEAL Team Six  ──   resisting China's invasion ?

Voice of America, 2024-9-14 the secret and precise combat characteristics of the  United States Navy's elite SEAL Team Six mean its role in resisting China's invasion of Taiwan would be very limited and the focus would be on carrying out special tasks.
Financial Times, New York Post, 2024-9-12 SEAL Team Six has spent more than a year training for possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan.  However,  the US has so far declined to explicitly say it would come to Taiwan's aid if attacked.

 

"cyberwar" -  pro-Russian vs Taiwan

CNBC (USA), 2024-9-13 "a large number of foreign IPs launched invalid queries" on stock exchange network, resulting in “unstable service for a short period of time.  Local media reported this attack on the Taiwanese government and financial unites, including airports and tax bureaus by a pro-Russian hacker group in retaliation for comments made by Taiwanese President William Lai (Lai Ching-te) .cnbc.com/2024/09/13/pro-russian-hackers-crash-taiwan-stock-exchange-website-local-media-reports-.html
Daily Express (UK), 2024-9-3 Lai Ching-te  has mocked Vladimir Putin with a humiliating quip, saying his biggest ally China should take advantage of Russia being at its "weakest" and take back territory.

 

Economist, 2024-9-5: Taiwan needs to hold out long enough for friends to come to its aid, but polls suggest the will to resist rests, in turn, on whether Taiwanese think America will defend them.  Taiwan can do much to strengthen its defences but, alas, it can do little to influence American politics Wall Street Journal, 2024-9-2: Elbridge Colby's argument has always been that Taiwan isn't itself of existential importance to America. Rather, our core interest is in denying China regional hegemony over Asia. Taiwan is very important for that goal, but not essential Wall Street Journal, 2024-8-28: Elbridge Colby suggested the U.S. may not come to Taiwan's defense in the event of Chinese aggression. Robert O'Brien urged Taiwan to spend at least 5% of its gross domestic product on defense.

 

The Chair of TPP (third largest party), Ko Wen-je,  was arrested

 Financial Times (UK), 2024-9-6 Prosecutors' swift moves against Cheng (former premier 鄭文燦) and Ko Wen-je (Chairman of TPP) have prompted Taiwanese commentators to question whether president Lai was “cleaning house” of political rivals or pushing an anti-corruption crackdown to win back public support (divert attention from the current chaos in domestic politics.). ... investigators typically sounded out their superiors before proceeding with big cases, especially those involving vested interests or politicians. “In a case like this, a signal would have been given from above before they go and detain him".
Council on Foreign Relations, 2024-9-3 Ko Wen-je──accuses the government of attempting to “suppress” its opponents and the press and judiciary of “being the government’s political tools.”
 Asia Nikkei (Japan), 2024-9-5 Ko Wen-je accuses government of witch hunt ... and launched broadsides against the legal system and the press, accusing them of doing the bidding of President Lai Ching-te's Democratic Progressive Party..."the judiciary and the media being the government's political tools" ( the KMT's most powerful lawmaker, that most legal professionals only listen to the DPP)

 

NBC News, Reuters, 2024-8-31: the use of China's tactics and strategies against Taiwan is still limited by the natural geographical environment of the Taiwan Strait and insufficient landing equipment and logistic capabilities, But China is speeding up development of a slew of new weapons, such as the H-20 bomber and hypersonic missiles and beefing up the number of nuclear warheads, and  China has other options to threaten Taiwan, such as inspecting foreign cargo ships Insider, 2024-8-29: Taiwan is rethinking its use of US-made anti-tank missiles after less than half hit their targets in recent combat drills   Business Insider, 2024-8-23: within the next six months, an aggressive, short-of-war campaign could force some of Taiwan's most vulnerable islands into a quarantine. Involvement by the US and its allies will be critical in maintaining Taiwan's resistance Atlantic Council, 2024-8-21: The period between delivery and integration is often invisible to the public.  The US should be focused not only on what Taiwan may need to deter and defeat China, but also on what can be quickly integrated into Taiwan's military.   National Public Radio, 2024-8-19: instead of just sending signals to Beijing or just sending weapons, arms to Taiwan, People really want to know whether the U.S. Navy or marine forces will help Taiwan to defend itself New York Times, 2024-8-21: President Biden approved in March a highly classified nuclear plan that reorients America's deterrent strategy to focus on the rapid expansion of China's nuclear arsenal. The Pentagon believes China's stockpiles will rival those of the U.S. and Russia over the next decade.   National Interest, 2024-8-17:Tensions between China and Taiwan threaten to boil over. Multiple experts, including this author, believe some kind of major Chinese move against the island democracy is at hand.  Instead of mirroring U.S. military capabilities, Taiwan should invest in anti-aircraft defenses, coastal defense batteries, hypersonic weapons, drones, and widespread civilian armament.   National Public Radio, 2024-8-19: instead of just sending signals to Beijing or just sending weapons, arms to Taiwan, People really want to know whether the U.S. Navy or marine forces will help Taiwan to defend itself   Council on Foreign Relations, 2024-8-9: Taiwan's President, Lai Ching-te, has unveiled plans to increase defense spending by nearly six percent.   Taiwan should do all it can to prepare for the worst and mounts a stiff resistance if deterrence fails. To that end, Taiwan's leaders should embrace a new defense spending target of five percent of GDP ( Israel's 2022 defense spending totaled 4.5 percent of GDP) and rapidly meet that goal through yearly double-digit percentage increases   Washington Post, Star and Strips, 2024-8-4: Taiwan's slow progress on boosting training concerns military experts ... Matt Pottinger says that Taiwan needs the political will and foresight to dedicate some of its best military officers to recruitment and instruction. “I'm really hoping that Taiwan makes these sacrifices"   National Interest, 2024-7-30:  Taiwan spends less as a percentage of GDP on its defense than the US. On top of that, Taiwan does not have a strong draft. Taiwan's politicians likely realize better than Washington that Taiwanese voters may not be as inclined to make the kind of heavy sacrifices that are necessary to defend their freedom as the Ukrainians, Israelis...   Bloomberg (2024-7-24): China squeezes Taiwan by targeting islands and fishing Sites  ──   The Chinese Coast Guard is now “constantly” patrolling east of the median line in the Taiwan strait;  It's likely that China will increasingly harass fishing boats and sightseeing boats to test Taiwan's response,  China's detention of the vessel may also be a subtle test of the US.

Taiwan's Annual Han Kuang exercise      ──   People don't realise the stage of infancy the military is in, said expert of the Atlantic Council.

 Newsweek , 2024-7-22 This year's drills are designed to better reflect the uncertainties of actual warfare...participating troops are not being briefed on where or when the "enemy" would strike and with what weapons systems, as a result of the added uncertainties of the new format,...assess how Taiwanese forces would handle a decentralized command structure in the event they are cut off from headquarters, as could happen should Chinese air strikes disable communications infrastructure before any invasion.
 Financial Times (UK), 2024-7-21 This year's drill pivots from scripted performances to realistic battlefield scenarios to address the Taiwan military's core problem, which is operational-level and tactical-level decision-making,”  The biggest problem was the general staff's planning process, they need to learn to adapt operational plans to a changing situation in wartime in rapid, live planning cycles.
  Barron's,  AFP (France),  2024-7-22 Japan has reportedly concluded that a ground landing in Taiwan by Chinese troops would now be "possible in less than a week" instead of the previous estimate of a month.

 

◆  Bloomberg, 2024-7-22: Taiwan's President risks angering China with 'National Identity' call Lai Ching-te urges DPP to protect Taiwan sovereignty. KMT lawmaker said it smacked of “ideology and nationalism” and was a sign that Lai was moving toward despotism Wall Street Journal, 2024-7-18: As if to remind everyone, Mr. Trump is casually signaling that the U.S. might not defend Taiwan from a Chinese assault. New York Times, 2024-7-16: many Taiwanese officials are convinced that their island will be vulnerable unless it quickly steps up preparedness.  some experts argue that the island should lengthen conscription — already extended recently to 12 months Bloomberg, TIME, 2024-7-11: China sent a record number of warplanes across a U.S.-drawn boundary in the Taiwan Strait—a move that comes as the new president of the archipelago mulls a trip that may include a stop in America Financial Times (2024-7-10):Experts warn that Taiwan remains woefully underprepared for war. A bigger challenge would be overhauling bureaucratic structures and procedures. War games and other assessments of Taiwan's defence readiness have repeatedly highlighted a lack of co-ordination between different government departments and the civilian and military bureaucracy.

 

China seized Taiwan boat with crew for fishing illegally -  a move could add to tensions between Beijing and President Lai Ching-te of Taiwan.

New York Times, 2024-7-3 China Seizes Taiwanese Fishing Boat in Latest Uptick in Tensions; Bonnie Glaser: China wants to demonstrate to Taiwan that it does not have control over air space and sea space...and sends a  signal to Lai that he is very close to their red lines and he had better not cross them.
CNN, 2024-7-3 China's coast guard detains Taiwan fishing boat near frontline islands; three Taiwan coast guard vessels answered a call for help but retreated to avoid conflict when they were outnumbered by their Chinese counterparts.
Bloomberg, 2024-7-3 China sees Lai as pushing for independence for the US-backed island...Officials in Taipei have also expressed concern that China will detain more individuals from the island to pile pressure on Lai.


Washington Post, 2024-7-1: China: Taiwan's
leadership, along with its supporters in the United States, is pursuing “separation” from China in “incremental” fashion.   Washington Examiner, 2024-7-2: Xi Jinping's regime is setting the legal and diplomatic table for a crackdown on Taiwan while blaming the United States for the growing possibility of war over the island democracy...  “The Chinese government has the right to expel this regime..."  The ominous rhetoric seems to express in part Xi's displeasure with Lai Ching-Te   The Atlantic Council, 2024-6-27: Taiwanese officials have rejected not only that interpretation but also Beijing’s claim that Taipei agreed to its view of “one China” when forming the “1992 consensus” at a semiofficial meeting in Hong Kong that year. The 'consensus' term was artificially coined nearly a decade after the meeting. There was no actual consensus, even according to Taiwan’s president in 1992, between Beijing and Taipei about the status of Taiwan with respect to the PRC.  Wall Street Journal, 2024-6-23: Lai Ching-te said he aimed to make Taiwan the “Asian center for the democratic drone supply chain."; Taiwan has the know-how to build its own unmanned aircraft, now it is a question of scale.  The overwhelming majority of the types of small, inexpensive drones that are having the greatest impact on battlefields are made in China New York Times, 2024-6-17 : the United States' chief representative in Taiwan advices: Avoid panic about China's combative language and moves, but don't grow numb to the risks  Financial Times, 2024-6-16 : China's President Xi Jinping told European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen that Washington was trying to goad Beijing into attacking TaiwanThe White House did not comment.
 

The US defends Taiwan ?

TIME, 2024-6-4 Asked by Time magazine whether The US might involve boots on the ground, US President Joe Biden said, "It would depend on the circumstances""we are not seeking independence for Taiwan nor will we in fact, not defend Taiwan if they if, if China unilaterally tries to change the status...Not ruling out using US military force. There's a distinction between deploying on the ground, air power and naval power, etc"

 

China's 'reunification' with Taiwan

Reuters, 2024-6-2 Prospect of peaceful 'reunification' with Taiwan is being increasingly "eroded" by Taiwanese separatists and external forces, China says
Wall Street Journal, 2024-6-2
China is determined to subvert and manipulate the island's politics
Daily Express, 2024-6-3 China's Defence Chief asserted that China's military is prepared to engage forcefully, and warned of an imminent "perilous situation of war and danger"

 
Washington Examiner, 2024-5-31:  Foreign Affairs wrote that invasion does not appear to be China's preferred option. Beijing's more probable plan is to gradually intensify the policy: a creeping encroachment into Taiwan's airspace, maritime space, and information space. The United States must become more alert to the dangers posed by a slow strangulation of Taiwan. New York Times, 2024-5-27:“The United States must maintain the capacity to resist any resort to force or coercion that would jeopardize the security of the people of Taiwan,” Mr. McCaul, the chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, said.    FoxNews, 2024-5-28 : House Foreign Affairs Chairman Michael McCaul said : "These war games to intimidate and protest the election from China are probably the most provocative I've ever seen in terms of the numbers of ships and planes", "we will probably lose if China invaded Taiwan. Washington Post, 2024-5-20: Taiwan swears in new president, the ruling party DPP has transformed the island democracy into a bulwark against Chinese aggression and brushed off increasingly ominous threats from Beijing; the perception is that Lai Ching-te's policy could be more provocative compared to Tsai's policy New York Times, 2024-5-20: Taiwan's president, Lai Ching-te vows to keep the island democracy safe in the face of Chinese pressure and wars raging abroad that have fed uncertainty over Western staying power.  "Peace through strength" is going to be his main posture     full text

 

China Launches Military Drills Around Taiwan as 'Punishment', 'Reprisals'

 New York Times, 2024-5-22 China took offense to Mr. Lai's assertion that  —  they “are not subordinate to each other” —  and his emphasis on Taiwan's democratic identity and warnings against threats from China. Beijing accused Mr. Lai of promoting formal independence for Taiwan ── the drill was “based on various stages of an invasion of Taiwan... might feature training to seize one of those islands.
BBC, 2024-5-23 the ongoing exercise is aimed at "simulating a full-scale armed invasion of Taiwan"... for the first time also targeted the Taipei-controlled islands of Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu and DongyinChina aims to show Taipei that its east is now exposed to Chinese attack, and to show the Americans that any effort to resupply or re-enforce Taiwan from the east is vulnerable to Chinese missile strikes and naval attack.
AFP, 2024-5-23 China holds war games around Taiwan, vows flowing blood CCTV : the drills were partly aimed at rehearsing an economic blockade of the island, "strangle" Taiwan's critical Kaohsiung port to "severely impact" its foreign trade,  and cut off "Taiwan's lifeline of energy imports" as well as "block the support lines that some US allies provide to 'Taiwan independence' forces".   General S. Sklenka described the exercises as "concerning" but not unexpected.
CNN, 2024-5-22 CCTV: creating an omnidirectional approach in pushing toward the island.  An expert ( at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peacecalls China's latest drills “an intimidation tactic, part of a pattern, not a sign of imminent war.” Beijing has a robust coercion kitbag from which it will mix and match, ratchet up and back and up again to signal its range of options to coerce and inflict pain
AFP, 2024-5-22 China slammed the inauguration speech of new Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te as a " downright 'confession of Taiwan independence'"
   full text

 

Reuters, 2024-5-20: Lai Ching-te takes office as Taiwan's new president facing an angry and deeply suspicious China which believes he is a "separatist", and a fractious parliament with an opposition chomping at the bit to challenge him. Bloomberg, Yahoo, 2024-5-15: China said it would sanction five Taiwanese political commentators and roll out a law to punish “separatists,” moves aimed at piling pressure on incoming president Lai Ching-te just days before he takes office War On The Rocks, 2024-5-15: Zelensky: "I need ammunition, not a ride"; Whereas Ukraine was focused on acquiring military aid, Taiwan will almost certainly be asking potential allies to engage in a direct military intervention.  Instead of focusing on ideology, Taiwan might be better served by appealing to the core security interests of the United States and its regional partners. Foreign Policy, 2024-5-12: China and the U.S. are numb to the real risk of war The pair are dangerously close to the edge of nuclear war over Taiwan—again.  Business Insider, 2024-5-10: China is untangling its economy from the West. It could be preparing for long-term tensions — and an invasion of Taiwan. Newsweek, 2024-5-8: Taiwan must embrace a more dynamic defensive strategy that can independently deter, or at least stall, Beijing.  If China establishes a beachhead on Taiwan that can be reliably resupplied, defeat is a matter of time New York Times, 2024-5-3: U.S. officials came to think that Mr. Xi would try to invade only if he believed he would succeed in a relatively bloodless operation before American troops responded... U.S. SM-6 missile seemed right for the job. Bloomberg, 2024-5-2: "We see China and Russia, for the first time, exercising together in relation to Taiwan...", Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said  in testimony to Congress.    Financial Times, 2024-5-3: Instead of trying to defeat China’s vastly superior air and naval forces head-on, Taiwan should ensure that any force attempting to come ashore would be slaughtered.  ABC News, 2024-5-1: The US is in a Cold War with China over Taiwan.  Taiwan is really existential to U.S. interests because of its position in the region; whoever controls Taiwan, really controls that Indo-Pacific region.  TIME, 2024-5-1:  Communist China's leaders “have to understand that things like that can't come easy,” Trump says, but he declines to say whether he would come to Taiwan's defense.  National Interest, 2024-5-1: To defend Taiwan, America needs to upgrade its defense-industrial base. Both America and its allies are now deeply preoccupied by events in other portions of the globe, which could lead the CCP to believe that it should strike while the United States is spread thin.  The Telegraph, 2024-5-1: this war chest like Beijing's hypersonic missiles and nuclear weapons – not to enable an attack on Taiwan at a chosen date, but to ensure that with the balance of power changing in China's favour, it will not be needed.  Xi is betting on political disarray and disunity among the US and his Western allies  Wall Street Journal, 2024-4-30: Taiwan's economy got off to a strong start this year, boosted by strong exports as global demand for electronics picks up Business Insider, 2024-4-27: A host of warning signs point to China preparing for military action against Taiwan.  Military forces are being deployed nearer to Taiwan than ever, effectively shortening Taiwan's reaction time.   New York Times, 2024-4-23:  in the Foreign Aid Package, the House attached a provision that would allow the Pentagon to quickly provide Taiwan with more offensive weapons and provides billions more for the purchase of advanced U.S. weapons technology as the U.S. and Taiwanese governments continue to build up their alliances to deter China from invading the island. USNI News, 2024-4-23: Report to Congress on Taiwan Defense Issues - A key consideration for U.S. policymakers is whether and if so how to support Taiwan’s ability to defend itself in a possible cross-Strait conflict without triggering such a conflict. New York Times, 2024-4-18: The House is set to vote on a foreign aid package for Taiwan -  allow the Pentagon to quickly provide Taiwan with more offensive weapons and provides billions more for the purchase of advance U.S. weapons technology as the U.S. and Taiwanese governments continue to build up their alliances to deter China from launching an invasion  Asia Nikkei, 2024-4-16: NATO Defense College report: Nato could become involved in a potential Taiwan conflict if Chinese attack on Hawaii New York Times, 2024-4-10: China's “immediate focus is to push the incoming Lai Ching-te administration to adopt a more accommodating political stance on cross-strait relations.  China has brushed off Mr. Lai's offers to talk as insincere. On the other hand, Beijing has shown that it will court friendlier Taiwanese politicians, like Mr. Ma, who accept the framework for relations demanded by Beijing: that both sides accept that they are part of one China, even if they differ on what that means. New York Times, 2024-4-3: In a rare call, Biden spoke with Xi. China said that Xi had called for “concrete actions” to demonstrate a U.S. commitment not to support Taiwan's independence.   New York Times, 2024-3-28 : Taiwan's top diplomat says a Russian victory could embolden China to move against Taiwan and would fuel anti-American propaganda 

 

Taiwan has breached its commitments  ─   Taiwan's death penalty "progress" in 10 years

till 2015  2024

<BBC> , <Amnesty International> UK , 2012-12-22

Amnesty International has condemned Taiwan's move as "cold-blooded killing".

The executions - by shooting - "made a mockery of the authorities' stated commitment to abolish the death penalty".

"It is abhorrent to justify taking someone's life because prisons are overcrowded or the public's alleged support for the death penalty".

<Amnesty International>) 、 <European Parliament> ,   Dec. 23, 2012Taiwan has breached its commitments: EU

London-based Amnesty International organization ), 2015-6-5: a failure of political leadership
France (2012-12-6) has condemned the execution of six death-row inmates by Taiwan

<BBC> (Chinese version),  4.30.2014, <Focus Taiwan>, 5.1.2014: ... human rights groups questioned Taiwan's execution this time with political purpose (shifts the focus on China's trade agreement, and nuclear factory issue).  

 

★  DW (Germany), 2024-4-24:

 

☉ tv.Guardian, DW video: Taiwan's claim to be a regional bastion of human rights is undermined by its retention of capital punishment, activists say.


co-executive director of the Death Penalty Project
"Taiwan has said for many years that they're on a road to abolition,"  "But my question is, is that road too long politically and that not enough progress has been made politically to move away from the death penalty?"


the issue is often being used by Taiwan gov. as "some kind of political maneuvering."

 

 

7.4-magnitude earthquake struck off Taiwan

New York Times, 2024-4-4 Taipei 101, once the tallest building in the world, still, some experts say that more needs to be done to either strengthen or demolish structures that don't meet standards, and such calls have grown louder in the wake of the latest earthquake.
USA Today, 2024-4-4 The island's two nuclear power stations remain unaffected.  Nvidia said it expects no supply disruptions from the earthquake.  Taiwan, prone to earthquakes, sits on the Pacific “Ring of Fire” where 90% of the world's temblors take place.  It felt strong in Taipei because of the “basin effect,” which occurs when earthquake reverberations become trapped in soft ground.
Fortune, 2024-4-4 TSMC said its fabrication plants recovered 70% of tools within 10 hours of the earthquake, and that its “critical tools,” such as its multimillion-dollar extreme ultraviolet lithography tools, remain unharmed...  its massive chip foundry mega-complexes are nearly quake-proof.
TIME, 2024-4-4 China offered earthquake aid to Taiwan—Taiwan's quick rejection likely stemmed, experts say, from lingering bitterness over how the 1999 earthquake was handled.
LA Times, 2024-4-4 Just recognizing that the fault didn't get near a major population center is probably the most important factor that reduced the damage.  Some residents voiced concerns about the alert system because not everyone was notified.
United Daily (聯合報), 2024-4-4 Why didn't most of Taiwanese receive government's national alert ?   Why did the government make such a serious misjudgment udn.com/news/story/7338/7876798?from=udn-catehotnews_ch2

 

National Interest, 2024-3-30 : Xi Jinping's statement in December 2023 hinted at possible invasion plans. Experts suggest Taiwan should pivot to insurgency tactics, including bolstering coastal defenses, developing hypersonic weapons, deploying massive numbers of drones, creating electromagnetic spectrum jammers, and distributing small arms widely among the population. Fox News, 2024-3-27 : Taiwan stands as major line of defense against global war with China, A change in Taiwan's status might not directly threaten the U.S. homeland in the immediate term, but it would irreversibly alter regional dynamics in ways that would benefit America's chief geopolitical adversary   New York Times, 2024-3-24 : Larger, more menacing military actions are possible, especially after Mr. Lai's inauguration. Any conciliatory messages in Mr. Lai's presidential inauguration speech were unlikely to shift China's strategy -“The gray zone operations against Taiwan will become more intense" .   Mr. Xi probably won't make any big decisions over Taiwan before the United States' presidential election  War On The Rocks, 2024-3-21 : Military analysts have proposed denying air superiority to China via mobile surface-to-air missiles and drones and creating a “prickly fortress of sea denial” with road-mobile anti-ship missiles; The naval mines make it easier to channel Chinese forces into areas where they are most vulnerable to Taiwan's anti-ship missiles, gun batteries, and drones. 

 

Taiwan Confirms US Troops on Front-Line Islands Near China

Wall Street Journal, 2024-3-20 Taiwan acknowledges presence of U.S. troops on outlying islands /  The U.S. planned to expand its presence of troops in Taiwan to between 100 and 200 last year, up from roughly 30 in 2022. The U.S. and Taiwan have been largely silent on the deployment as they attempt to avoid agitating Beijing while they work to fortify Taiwan against a potential Chinese invasion.
Taiwan News, 2024-3-21 US commander denies permanently stationing troops on Taiwan's outer island

 

Wall Street Journal, 2024-3-18 : U.S. officials and military scholars have long believed that the expensive hardware is apt to get wiped out by China's much larger military, in the early stages of attack. For the past few years, Taiwan’s procurement, under U.S. pressure, has put more emphasis on asymmetrical weapons such as Harpoon antiship missiles, Himars rocket launchers and mines.  but if China amasses forces around the island in a blockade, or if Beijing's military establishes a firm beachhead on Taiwan, small, short-range weapons could be less effective at degrading the enemy, Taiwan says War On The Rocks, 2024-3-14 : U.S.  public support  for Taiwan, which is as high as it has ever been according to polls, supports aiding Taiwan to defend itself against China in the event of an attack, but consistently opposes any direct military intervention by the United States. Foreign Policy, 2024-3-14 : Taiwan imports  97 percent  of its energy through highly vulnerable maritime shipping routes. Any quarantine, blockade, or invasion of the island by China would devastate its ability to sustain basic services and critical infrastructure—not to mention the factories that produce approximately  90 percent  of the world's most advanced semiconductors. Solutions are in short supply. Financial Times, 2024-3-11 : Frequently, "grey zone", semi-hostile behaviour, is via fishing boats and coastguard vessels on the fringes of Taiwanese waters, designed, it seems, to keep testing and squeezing Taiwan.  China recently sharpened its rhetoric saying it must “fight” Taiwanese independence, rather than “oppose” it, its previous preferred formulation. CNN (2024-3-10) : the Economist declared that Taiwan was “the most dangerous place on Earth.”; The world's most dangerous place has only gotten more dangerous. Perhaps the extraordinary and rapid growth of China and the reality of America's dominant status made this inevitable, "destined for war" .  In the past, Communist China believed that it could wait (reunification) because time was on its side. But that premise is proving untrue. This issue will need to be managed rather than solved —All three sides should keep talking ... United States Institute of Peace (2024-3-5) : After Taiwan's election, China is now ratcheting up the pressure. China's efforts to change the status quo with Taiwan could lead to unintentional conflict. Associated Press (2024-3-5):  conquest over the self-governing island democracy of Taiwan, driving Indian forces from their disputed border, and asserting control over islands in the East China and South China Sea all on Beijing's list of priorities. USNI.org, 2024-3-1: Report to Congress on Taiwan Defense and Military Issues / The archipelago's energy, food, water, internet, and other critical infrastructure systems are vulnerable to external disruption.  Civil-military relations are strained...Taiwan's civil defense preparedness is insufficient, and its military struggles to recruit, retain, and train personnel.  it is not clear what costs—in terms of economic security, physical safety and security, and lives—Taiwan's people would be willing or able to bear in the face of possible PRC armed aggression...renewing U.S. debates about how to allocate limited resources to shore up Taiwan's resilience  New York Times, 2024-2-26: The P.L.A.'s now-normalized presence around Taiwan raises the risk of an accidental confrontation. Taiwan's response has been inconsistent and lacks transparency, which may further embolden Beijing...Taipei's approach to sharing information about Chinese activities with the public has not been fully transparent CNN, 2024-2-27: Today Xi is expanding China's military at a pace the world hasn’t seen in a century – since before World War Two. Xi's military build-up is, by comparison, larger than Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan combined.his ambitions in nuclear, space, and AI warfare are advancing at lightning speed...  characterized by a high degree of projective self-confidence and a lot less patient on the Taiwan issue.   Financial Times, 2024-2-27: Chinese research ships increase incursions near Taiwan Financial Times, 2024-2-23: In the past, China would only talk about the ‘one-China principle’, but now they have rolled it all into one with the push for unification VOA, 2024-2-23: Taiwan faces tough balancing act as China increases pressure Yahoo News, 2024-2-24: Trump wouldn't say definitively one way or the other whether he would defend Taiwan. DAVID SACKS: and actually blame Taiwan for taking America's semiconductor industry.  So I do think the US presidential election could be a real factor here. CNN, 2024-2-23: Xi takes a page from Putin as he vows to control Taiwan; Xi is expanding China's military at a pace the world has not seen in a century since before World War II.

Foreign Affairs, 2024-2-20       foreignaffairs.com/scared-strait  brief

Raymond Kuo, Michael A. Hunzeker, Mark A. Christopher GLASER, WEISS, AND CHRISTENSEN reply
(They) argue that Washington and Taiwan are not doing enough to assure Beijing of their intentions, in the process undermining deterrence in the Taiwan Strait.... providing more assurances will simply embolden Beijing to continue its threatening behavior.  Conditional, credible consequences are now essential to encouraging a less bellicose Chinese policy...when deterrence is needed against a determined and capable rival, assurances that are not reciprocated can quickly become concessions. we did not advocate an “assurance first” strategy that offers “concessions” to appease Beijing... the new military measures we think are needed for deterrence will be less effective if Beijing believes they are aimed at buttressing a unilateral assertion of independence by Taiwan or ... an alliance... China can attack out of fear.  They may believe that Taiwan can safely assert permanent sovereign independence as long as there is sufficient military might in place to dissuade Beijing from attacking. If so, they are hardly alone, but we strongly disagree.

 

  Financial Times, 2024-2-19: China coastguard boards Taiwan tourist boat. Rare inspection raises tensions around Taipei-controlled island of Kinmen just off the Chinese coast Taiwan national security officials worry about as it could disrupt supplies and undermine public confidence even without reaching the level of a full blockade CNN, 2024-2-19: China ramps up patrols near Taiwan's outlying islands following death of Chinese fishermen.  The patrols are likely to put Chinese coast guard vessels in closer proximity to their Taiwanese counterparts, potentially raising the risk of miscalculation and conflict. Foreign Affairs, 2024-2-16: A war over the island could easily cause a global depression.   A Chinese seizure of Taiwan could trigger a race among nations to develop their own nuclear arsenals as U.S. security guarantees lost credibility DW, 2024-2-16: Elbridge Colby: Taiwan's military preparation has "lagged behind the scale of the threat" despite some incremental progress. "Not really doing anything near what it would need to do to make itself more defensible" borders on "vaguely suicidal behavior"  CSIS.org , 2024-2-13: Specific interests, rather than democratic solidarity,  stability, rather than debates over Taiwan's sovereignty are more likely to drive engagement with Taiwan in most parts of the world  Council on Foreign Relations, 2024-2-8: Differences over Taiwan's status have fueled rising tensions between the island and the mainland.  Through its policy of strategic ambiguity, the US has for decades attempted to maintain a delicate balance between supporting Taiwan and preventing a war with China. But President Joe Biden has seemingly rejected the policy, stating several times that the US would come to Taiwan's defense if China attacked. White House officials have walked back his comments, saying the policy has not changed, but ultimately, the president gets to decide how to respond.    

 

the Deaths of Chinese Fishermen That Taiwanese Forces Chased Away - tensions between China and Taiwan reached a new high

GT (China) ,  2024-2-26 Taiwan even used the phrase "rescue explanation of the overturned mainland speedboat" at a press conference, making the accident sound like the mainland fishing boat had accidentally capsized and Taiwan's vessel was there to rescue, blatantly spreading false information.  If the Taiwan authorities continue to disregard the mainland's sincerity, then they will bear the consequences and pay the cost. Calling off the "off-limit" or "restricted" waters in the Xiamen-Kinmen zones, realizing regular law enforcement patrols in the entire Xiamen-Kinmen waters, including boarding inspections of relevant ships  globaltimes.cn/page/202402/1307706.shtml
Associated Press, 2024-2-18 The fishermen's deaths are unusual despite the level of Chinese activity in the waters near Kinmen, which is closer to China than it is to Taiwan's main island
TIME, 2024-2-15 China: Taiwan's officials have long mistreated fishermen from the mainland and forcefully and dangerously seized mainland fishing boats, a pattern it claims led to the recent
Reuters, NBC News, 2024-2-18 China has condemned Taiwan's actions and labeled the death incident "wicked".  The deaths had caused “strong indignation” in China, and there is no such thing as ‘prohibited or restricted waters’.  China will strengthen its law enforcement activities and carry out regular patrols around a small group of Taiwanese-controlled islands off the Chinese coast as tensions rise over the deaths of two Chinese nationals
Daily Express (UK), 2024-2-18 China ramps up coast guard ships in Taiwan waters as tensions rise over fishermen deaths. Tensions between China and Taiwan have reached a new high.
DW (Germany), 2024-2-16 Inevitable Taiwan tensions in 2024
China Daily (China) , 2024-2-19

China: A callous act with disregard for human life. It has caused strong indignation across the mainland ; For many years, the mainland established reception facilities for Taiwan fishermen in numerous coastal areas, provided them assistance such as shelters and supplies, and rescued Taiwan fishing boats and fishermen,In contrast, the DPP Taiwan have, for some time, forcefully detained mainland fishing boats under various pretexts and treated mainland fishermen in a rude and dangerous manner, this was the key reason why the fatal incident occurred.  The mainland reserves the right to take further measures, and Taiwan will bear all consequences.

Taipei Times (Taiwan), 2024-2-16 Taiwan (MAC) : Coast guard's conduct appropriate -  they were legally performing their duties and had not erred in any way.  Chinese fishing vessels have been intruding into Taiwan's restricted or prohibited waters for a while to poach high-priced fish

 

  Newsweek, 2024-2-8: US Army special forces as a permanent arrangement train Taiwan troops in Penghu, Kinmen and Taoyuan; the permanent presence of American forces on the island was considered a possible trigger for a cross-strait shooting war  TIME , 2024-2-9: In an event of invasion, the first 48 hours are extremely important, because that’s the window within which China will take advantage of its geographic proximity, and it will take some time before the American Navy Indo-Pacific Command can respond to a major contingency,  “That's where the Philippines comes in.” Reuters, 2024-2-6: If an attack comes, the Pentagon believes Beijing will want to seize the capital as fast as possible and isolate the island's leadership; Stopping that would require rapid mobilisation -  but more than two million former conscripts receive no ongoing further training   New York Times, 2024-2-5 briefing: China's expanding nuclear arsenal - The weapons could also shape the future of Taiwan — if China gained confidence that it could use their existence to limit Western intervention in any conflict National Interest, 2024-2-2:  hybrid warfare operations still fit better into China's cost-benefit calculus. China's invasion of Taiwan seems unlikely in the short term. Instead, the military aspects of China's hybrid warfare operations may be more visible in the near future Reuters, 2024-1-31: Taiwan angered at 'unilateral' China change to Taiwan Strait flight path, saying it appeared to be a deliberate attempt to change the status quo for possible military means.

 

 ◆  the Lowy Institute Asia Power Index, 2023 Edition

  Taiwan China Japan Korea Singapore
Comprehensive Power No.14  down 15.2 2nd 3rd 7th 8th
Economic capability 8th  -1.2   down 13.0 2nd  87.0 3rd   5th 6th
Military Capability 11th  +2.1   up 21.7 2nd   68.1 6th   27.4 5th 9th
Resilience 18th   -5.9 down 24.7 3rd   70.4 11th  10th 14th
Future Resources 12th  up 6.5 2nd   72.9 5th 7th 11th
Diplomatic Influence  22th  -3.9   down 19.4 1st    91.5 3rd 6th 10th
Economic Relationships 12th  +0.6  up 11.1 1st   98.3 3rd 5th 4th
Cultural Influence 13th  -2.2   down 12.6 2nd   47.4 3rd 7th 9th
Defense Networks 16th  down 11.8 7th    23.7 3rd 4th 5th
power.lowyinstitute.org/countries/taiwan/

 

Bloomberg, TIME, 2024-1-31:China says the U.S. could abandon Taiwan if Trump wins the Presidency; In July, Trump avoided directly answering a query over whether as president he'd defend Taiwan if China attacked.

  New York Times, 2024-1-27:  The truth is that Taiwan hasn't been willing to make deep sacrifices for its own security.  It allocates a smaller share of G.D.P. to defense than the United States, Israel or Estonia; it is only now requiring a year of military conscription (for men); and it is phasing out nuclear power plants, which are critical for resilience in a blockade because they provide homegrown power when imports provide 98 percent of energy National Interest, 2024-1-27: the Atlantic Council reported that Taipei has a potential defensive force of 450,000 troops. Using the traditional three-to-one ratio of attackers to defenders to successfully mount an invasion, China would need more than 1.2 million troops. While an air campaign could bring Taipei to its knees and then the peace table, such an effort would utterly destroy the island's infrastructure in the process Economist, 2024-1-25: China is changing the status quo militarily and on the diplomatic stage. That bodes ill for the future. As China sees it, the more countries that adopt its view of Taiwan, the more cover it has to turn words into action New York Times, 2024-1-24: Some believe — it appears this may be Trump's view — that T.S.M.C. is so valuable that it might tempt China to try to grab Taiwan, and then bring the world to its knees.  Given how difficult it is to move production, the best way to safeguard the manufacturing of chips may be to work harder than ever to deter and avoid war in the Taiwan Strait. Wall Street Journal, 2024-1-19: The prospect that Taiwanese voters might never elect a Beijing-friendly government again could tilt China toward harsher methods to seek unification, including military force Washington Post, 2024-1-17:  The Taiwanese people showed they are not interested in becoming a pawn in the U.S.-China competition. Taiwan wants ties with both the US and China New York Times, 2024-1-17: A peaceful solution on Taiwan is slipping away.  Chinese law explicitly states that Beijing may use force if possibilities for peaceful unification are “completely exhausted.”.  Conflict between China and the United States just got a little more likely. New York Times, 2024-1-15: Taiwan's president-elect represents a setback for China Some U.S. officials have warned, China will be increasingly ready to try to seize or subdue Taiwan by force... Lai may have to watch his tendency for occasional off-the-cuff remarks, which Beijing could exploit and turn into crises.    New York Times, 2024-1-13: Mr. Lai's victory (in presidential election) forces Mr. Xi to face a lack of progress.  With Taiwan's sense of self and China's expectations in conflict, Mr. Xi is not expected to sit idly by Washington Post, 2024-1-10:  increasingly frequent warnings from China's strongman leader Xi Jinping that Beijing's rule here is “inevitable” — raising the prospect of a conflict that could draw in the United States New York Times, 2024-1-9: China suggests that another D.P.P. victory after eight years in power would intensify the risk of conflict. A warning from Taiwan about a satellite, erroneously called a missile in English, raised concerns about Chinese harassment days before an election. The rocket with a satellite steered off course into the skies above the atmosphere of southern Taiwan. The Hill, 2024-1-6: Often characterized as a proxy war between the superpowers, the reality of the situation is far more nuanced and indicative of a complex geopolitical chess game where, surprisingly, both the U.S. and China stand to gain regardless of the election's outcome Foreign Affairs, 2024-1-5: U.S. support for Ukraine diverts weapons from Taiwan but demonstrates resolve to China The Globe and Mail, 2024-1-5:The tragedy of Taiwan is that a clash with China is inevitable Telegraph, 2024-1-5: Super aircraft carrier Fujian is nearly ready for a China-Taiwan war New York Post, 2023-12-21: China's Xi Jinping warned Joe bluntly that Beijing will take Taiwan... It represents a clear escalation on China's part, moving from its longtime claim of ownership to notification of intent to take possession.  Brookings Institution, 2023-12-18: although China would respond to a Taiwan declaration of independence with a military campaign, Beijing knows that this would be quite risky, in part because the PLA is not ready to undertake such a complicated campaign; a wide-ranging campaign of coercion that includes displays of military force but a variety of non-military pressure and intimidation, a low-risk approach, targets the confidence of the people of Taiwan, and there are signs that it is gradually working. Economist, 2023-12-13: There is an argument from the us that although Taiwan is a key security interest for the us, it should stop saying that. Because that's going to provoke China, and the us should say it's up to the people of Taiwan and China to decide their future.  Taiwan's vice pres. candidate: Taiwan is a security interest primarily for the people of Taiwan. But Taiwan is also a security interest for the world.   Reporters Without Borders (RSF) , 2023-12-13: Taiwan is a country that suffers from one of the lowest trust rates in the media among democracies (28%) and where the media community is often criticised for disregarding journalism ethics... journalists suffer from a very polarised media environment dominated by sensationalism and the pursuit of profit at the expense of quality news reporting.

 

Taiwan's economy - compared with Asian countries

Hong Kong

Taiwan

Median wealth per adult (Credit Suisse, Research Institute, 2023 ) US$ 202,410 (world No.3) US$ 108,250
Mean wealth per adult (Credit Suisse, Research Institute, 2023 ) US$ 551,190 US$ 273,790
The average salary (Morgan McKinley, Business Insider, 2023) HK$ 36,583 (about TWD147,204) TWD 48,032 (plus overtime etc TWD 57,045) - storm.mg/lifestyle/4851897
Median salary (UDN, 2023-12-14) about TWD 84,000 about TWD 43,000
Market Capitalization  (UDN, 2023-12-14) more than double of Taiwan's about USD 1.7 trillion
At the end of 2022, Taiwan's per capita GDP amounted to $32,756 while Singapore's was $82,808, Japan and South Korea were at $33,815 and $32,255, respectively, according to the World Bank.

 

The Diplomat, 2023-12-11: Taiwan's election is not a turning point for US policy -  but- Continuity in U.S. support for Taiwan and hardening against China will face an inflection point if Biden is replaced by Donald Trump or some other candidate with strong “America First” leanings in the November 2024 elections The Guardian, 2023-12-9: Cracks are appearing in China's monolithic regime – and its leader might decide a military adventure will strengthen his grip on power Fortune, 2023-12-5: After Israel and Ukraine, Taiwan business leaders fear Taipei-Beijing tensions may trigger the next geopolitical conflict...the Republican-led House approved money only for Israel in November, defying Biden's request for spending for all three allies (Ukraine, Taiwan).  New York Times, 2023-12-4: Taiwan's presidential election candidates have focused on who can best handle the island's volatile relationship with China. But many voters, especially those in their 20s and 30s, say they are weary of geopolitics and yearn for a campaign more focused on their concerns, like rising housing costs, slow income growth and narrowing career prospects... could be a crucial factor in deciding the presidential election
 

western media  Taiwan's presidential election -  could reignite U.S.-China tensions
Washington Post, 2023-11-28 Beijing calls the race a “choice between war and peace” and it has escalated an intimidation campaign around the island democracy, taking Chinese military aggression in the Taiwan Strait to heights unseen in decades... a vote that could reignite U.S.-China tensions if Beijing takes the results badly.   brief
Washington Post, 2023-11-28 Our policy, therefore, has to be not truculence and deterrence but to make sure that push does not come to shove. That means ... scrupulously avoiding support for Vice President Lai Ching-te.  brief
CNBC, 2023-11-27 Chinese government has framed this elections as a choice between “peace and war, prosperity and decline.”  The outcome of Taiwan’s elections will likely go some way in influencing testy U.S.-China ties and impact security in the Asia-Pacific region more broadly.  brief
Bloomberg, 2023-11-26 an unprecedented third straight term in power for the DPP is by no means a foregone conclusion. After almost eight years in power, there's growing unhappiness with the party and a desire for change, especially among younger voters. brief
Reuters, 2023-11-28 China repeated its attacks on Lai and Hsiao "distorted facts and downplayed the harmfulness and danger of 'Taiwan independence' separatist activities to deceive voters in the 2024 leadership election in Taiwan"  brief
SCMP, 2023-11-29 Taiwan poll: DPP senses win with Lai-Hsiao ticket but Beijing might see 'war'

western media  Taiwan presidential election -  opposition alliance collapse
New York Times, 2023-11-24 even experienced observers baffled as to why the opposition parties would stage such a public rupture over who would be the presidential candidate on a unity ticket... , It really defies theories of coalition building.  Lai's party asserts Taiwan's distinctive identity and claims to nationhood, and has become closer to the United States.  China could respond by escalating menacing military activities around Taiwan, which sits roughly 100 miles off the Chinese coast.   brief
Economist, 2023-11-24 polls suggest the flurry of chaotic opposition negotiating has modestly bolstered both Mr Hou and Mr Ko. After eight years in power, the dpp is struggling especially with younger voters, who are suffering from high housing costs and low wages. Some also worry about a possible war with China.  brief
Bloomberg, 2023-11-24 There is zero chance that the unhappy trajectory in cross-strait relations gets reversed if Lai winsIt will certainly lead to a continuation and probable escalation of pressures and threats...will impact the nature of the US’s already tense ties with China.   brief
BBC, 2023-11-24 Mr Lai is not much of a campaigner. His poll ratings have gradually sunk, from over 40% in the summer to barely touching 30% now.   brief
VOA, 2023-11-24 analysts say will be a referendum on China relations. Beijing said Lai attempted to hide that he is a “pursuer of Taiwan independence” and an “instigator of war.” brief
Washington Post, 2023-11-24 Lai's advantage is largely thanks to disarray in the opposition camp. He has consistently polled around or just above 30 percent.     A win is not guaranteed. Public grievances against the ruling party have bubbled up during Tsai’s presidency, which has been hit by corruption scandals and grumbling from Taiwanese businesses about lost trade with China;  Lev Nachman:This election is becoming about who voters think is the safest choice for Taiwan。” brief
Reuters, 2023-11-24 China ties on the line as Taiwan opposition splits in dramatic feud,    potentially easing the way for the ruling party, which has defied Beijing's pressure, to stay in power.
TIME, 2023-11-24 collapse of the alliance is likely to consolidate both the KMT’s and the TPP's vote base on the one hand, as intensified conflicts usually can promote vote base consolidation and unity,  wing voters who have no stable identification with either party will be less likely to vote for [either of] them.”
Wall Street Journal, 2023-11-24 China isn’t backing off TaiwanThe U.S. will wish it had deterred the crisis when faced with these grim choices; Far better to avoid this conflict than to fight it in any form.

 

  Washington Post, 2023-11-21: Xi Jinping is sending ominous signals on Taiwan / on the most important issue in the relationship — Taiwan — Washington and Beijing are moving further apart. Xi's rhetoric indicates he's getting impatient with the status quo — and his actions are even more worrisome. Newsweek, 2023-11-21: an overwhelming majority (7/10) of people in Taiwan do not believe the United States is trustworthy, according to a new poll released on Monday. Most, however, were convinced by America's commitment to the island's safety.  

 

media Biden-Xi meeting
USA Today, 2023-11-15 Biden and Xi spar over Taiwan, Xi said there are no plans for military action, but stressed the need for an eventual resolution
Foreign Policy, 2023-11-15 Taiwan’s Room to Maneuver Shrinks as Biden and Xi Meet; As the latest crisis in the Taiwan straits wraps up, Taipei is on the back foot.
France 24, 2023-11-15 Taiwan set to dominate talks as Xi meets Bidenfrom Beijing's perspective, the most important issue in the US-China relationship will be over Taiwan
New York Times, 2023-11-16 The two nations have spiraled into their worst relationship in four decades, and Biden’s primary goal was simple: Find a way to keep an increasingly bitter competition with China from tipping into conflict

 

  Washington Post, 2023-11-13: the United States’ Indo-Pacific Command now considers it harder to distinguish between Chinese military coercion and the full-scale mobilization that would presage an invasion...However, China probably remains years away from being capable of using civilian ships to support a successful cross-strait invasion   New Yorker, 2023-11-14: The war in Gaza, along with ongoing U.S. support of Ukraine, has prompted concern in some quarters that Taiwan could be left dangerously vulnerable   Economist, 2023-11-13: If William Lai, the DPP's candidate, wins in January, China may respond with a similar show of force or go further, enforcing a longer blockade, interfering with Taiwan's internet or creating more crises in the Taiwan Strait

  Bloomberg, 2023-11-10: The US's top general said he doubts Beijing plans to try to take Taiwan militarily   BBC, 2023-11-9: Beijing's espionage strategy has intensified and expanded beyond elite military circles. Taiwan did not have a robust system for restricting access to classified information until recently.   Economist, 2023-11-6: Invading Taiwan would be a logistical minefield for China; despite huge advances in many areas, it still does not have the troops, equipment, experience, command structures or logistics necessary to be confident of victory in a war over Taiwan  BBC, 2023-11-6:  in a conflict with China, Taiwan's navy and air force would be wiped out in the first 96 hours of battle. Under intense pressure from Washington, Taipei is switching to a "fortress Taiwan" strategy - The focus will switch to ground troops, infantry and artillery  -  Taiwan still cannot hope to deter China by itself. This is the other lesson from the war in Ukraine. There is now fierce debate in Washington about how far the US should go in supporting Taiwan    Economist, 2023-10-31: Taiwan's chips give the world an economic reason to protect the island from a Chinese invasion. But now America and China are competing to control the supply of these sophisticated chips. And that puts Taiwan in the middle of the two superpowers   Washington Post, 2023-10-31: China's bellicosity against Taiwan has ratcheted up. China now regularly makes military feints at Taiwan with naval and aerial incursions.    New York Times, 2023-10-29: Xi may decide to strike if he begins to feel that Taiwan is slipping further from his grasp, especially if the United States continues to bolster Taiwan's military and its own forces in the region. Taiwan must accelerate its shift toward investing in defense capabilities    Economist, 2023-10-26: In 2019 Xi Jinping, China's president, gave a speech linking the 1992 consensus with the mainland’s one-China principle and proposed a “one country, two systems” formula for incorporating Taiwan. That speech “set the tone” for a more assertive Chinese policy on Taiwan   Nikkei Asian Review, 2023-10-27: Taiwan still invests in conventional weapons at the expense of asymmetric capabilities, and it's "not clear whether the government has embraced asymmetric warfighting concepts   New York Times, 2023-10-21: Why we should fear China more than Middle Eastern war ? Only China is an arguable peer of the United States, only China's technological and industrial might can hope to match our own, and only China has the capacity to project power globally as well as regionally.   Newsweek, 2023-10-20: Pentagon Lists Six Possible Causes of China-Taiwan War: 1.  Formal Declaration of Independence 2. Undefined Moves Toward Taiwan Independence 3. "internal unrest" in Taiwan 4. Acquisition of Nuclear Weapons 5. Indefinitely Delayed Cross-Strait Dialogue on Unification 6. Foreign Military Intervention in Taiwan's Internal Affairs

 

Taiwan's presidential election

Newsweek, 2023-10-26 Taiwan Voters Must Choose Between 'War and Peace,' China Says